Tag: Accumulation

  • Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking as On-Chain Metrics Hint at Market Bottom

    Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking as On-Chain Metrics Hint at Market Bottom

    Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have started to sell after months of continued accumulation, signaling a potential new phase in the market. Despite profit-taking by seasoned investors—which is likely to create short-term selling pressure—several on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin could be entering conditions more commonly seen near market bottoms.

    On-chain data reveals that LTH supply recently began declining after climbing close to 16 million BTC, while the supply of LTHs in short-term holding periods remains comparatively low. Historically, after extended price rallies, long-term investors have sold part of their holdings, allowing new investors to enter the market.

    On-Chain Indicators Suggest Accumulation

    The LTH/STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has moved closer to 1, indicating that the profits of long-term and short-term holders are converging. Historically, this pattern occurred in 2015, 2019, and 2022, with selling pressure easing slowly over time and accumulation resuming. While the ratio has not yet entered its traditional accumulation zone, current readings suggest the market is heading further toward that zone.

    This cycle also differs from previous ones. Bitcoin’s first major price increase in the current cycle took approximately 31 months to achieve—much longer than the 8 to 17 months seen in past cycles. This extended timeline suggests that investor behavior has evolved alongside the rising institutionalization of the market.

    Also Read: Bitcoin Security Faces New Questions After the Coldcard Wallet Hack

    Fear Persists Despite Improving Fundamentals

    LTH supply recently started declining after climbing close to 16 million BTC. Currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 40, indicating neutral market sentiment. Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has been squeezed to the 1.21–1.22 zone. Historically, when sentiment turned negative while on-chain fundamentals improved, new accumulation phases have begun. Meanwhile, long-term investor supply remains near record levels, suggesting that established investors are holding onto most of their Bitcoin after recent distributions.

    Although no single indicator can accurately identify a market bottom, the combination of record long-term holder conviction, compressed valuations, subdued speculative activity, and cautious investor sentiment increasingly resembles conditions seen before previous Bitcoin recoveries.

    In the short term, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase to what could become an accumulation phase. Whether this marks the cycle bottom will depend on overall macroeconomic conditions, investor demand, and the market’s ability to absorb continued selling pressure from long-term investors.

  • Dogecoin Accumulation Hits Maximum Score as Breakout Pressure Intensifies

    Dogecoin Accumulation Hits Maximum Score as Breakout Pressure Intensifies

    Dogecoin holds near $0.07 as its accumulation score reaches 100. Whale purchases and futures activity are rising. A confirmed range breakout could revive targets near $0.65 and eventually above $1.25 if market participation strengthens further.

    Dogecoin remains near $0.07, while improving momentum, whale buying, and rising derivatives activity suggest pressure may be building inside its narrow trading range. Analyst Javon Marks also sees a wider cycle structure targeting $0.653 before a possible extension above $1.25. However, DOGE must hold support and escape its current range before those projections gain confirmation.

    Sideways Trading Builds a Wider Base

    DOGE is trading between about $0.0719 and $0.0730 as volatility stays unusually low. The narrow range shows that buyers and sellers have not gained firm control. Even so, the chart gives Dogecoin a maximum accumulation score of 100. This reading suggests buyers may be adding positions while price movement remains limited.

    At the same time, the relative strength index has moved toward its midpoint. Price has barely changed, which indicates that selling pressure has started to ease. The MACD histogram has also improved during the consolidation. However, volume remains weak, and the ADX still points to a ranging market.

    A clear move above $0.0730 could open the path toward $0.075 and $0.076. By contrast, a break below $0.0719 would weaken the accumulation setup.

    Cycle Pattern Revives Higher Price Targets

    Javon Marks views the current phase as post-breakout consolidation. His chart compares it with structures that appeared before Dogecoin’s major rallies in 2017 and 2021. Each earlier cycle followed a similar sequence. DOGE broke a descending trend, traded sideways for an extended period, and later entered a sharp expansion phase.

    The first major projection now sits near $0.653. This level stands close to Dogecoin’s previous cycle high and could place $0.70 within reach. A stronger advance could then support a projection above $1.25. However, the pattern still depends on DOGE holding long-term support and clearing its present range.

    Could the quiet price action mark another accumulation phase before volatility returns? For now, the setup remains a historical comparison rather than a confirmed breakout.

    Whale Buying and Leverage Increase

    Large Dogecoin holders acquired 200 million DOGE through Robinhood, according to an X post. The purchase carried an estimated value of about $14 million. The transaction added to evidence of large-wallet demand while DOGE traded sideways. Its impact will depend on whether those coins remain off exchanges or return for sale.

    Meanwhile, Dogecoin futures volume rose 114% to about $739.56 million. Open interest also increased 3.74% to roughly $1.08 billion. Rising volume and open interest show that traders added new exposure. CoinGlass data also shows liquidation clusters above and below the current price.

    These clusters could increase volatility if the price reaches either side. Broader market conditions offered some support, with Bitcoin above $64,000 and Ethereum above $1,870. XRP remained below $1.10, showing uneven performance among major cryptocurrencies. DOGE still needs stronger spot participation before its developing setup becomes more reliable.