Tesla stock edged higher ahead of its second-quarter earnings report, as investors zeroed in on automotive margins, free cash flow, and rising capital expenditures. The upcoming results, due after the market close on Wednesday, July 22, will also shine a spotlight on the company’s progress with Robotaxi expansion, Optimus humanoid robot production, and whether stronger vehicle deliveries can offset mounting costs.
Shares gained roughly 3% on Tuesday, rebounding from four consecutive losing sessions, though the stock remains down about 13% for 2026.
Deliveries Recover, Bolstering Revenue Forecasts
Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, a 25% increase year over year. Production reached 451,758 units, while energy storage deployments hit 13.5 gigawatt-hours. Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 467,762 deliveries.
The company’s internal consensus points to quarterly revenue of approximately $27.58 billion. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of roughly $0.55 per share, up from $0.40 a year ago. Broader market estimates place revenue between $26.2 billion and $27.7 billion.
The delivery rebound may provide a tailwind for automotive revenue after weaker periods. However, Tesla cautioned that pricing, production costs, foreign exchange rates, and product mix also influence profitability.
Margins and Cash Flow Under Pressure
Wall Street forecasts Tesla’s automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, will fall to about 18.1%, down from 19.2% in the previous quarter. Financing incentives, vehicle discounts, and higher input costs could further weigh on the metric.
Free cash flow is likely to draw particular scrutiny. LSEG data points to negative free cash flow of roughly $3.3 billion for the period, which would mark Tesla’s first quarterly cash burn in more than two years.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management expects automotive margins to slightly exceed consensus and projects second-quarter capital spending of about $6.7 billion. “I expect good news,” Munster wrote, but questioned how investors would react to higher spending in 2027.
In April, Tesla raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan above $25 billion, covering data centers, vehicle plants, robotaxis, and the Optimus humanoid robot program. Investors will be watching whether operating cash flow can fund these projects without severely depleting Tesla’s cash reserves.
Robotaxi Timelines Return to the Forefront
Gary Black of The Future Fund noted that repeated missed Robotaxi targets have eroded confidence in Tesla’s public timelines. He pointed to Elon Musk’s earlier forecast that the service would cover half of the U.S. population by the end of 2025.
Tesla expanded Robotaxi coverage to Orlando and Tampa ahead of earnings, but the service remains limited compared with earlier national ambitions. The company has started production of the Cybercab, though those vehicles have not yet entered its commercial network.
Investor questions also center on the Optimus production schedule and obstacles slowing Robotaxi expansion. Nine of the ten most-supported questions on Tesla’s investor platform concern artificial intelligence projects, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, or Optimus.
Shareholders have also asked about market speculation regarding a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. Neither company has confirmed such a transaction. The earnings call is expected to focus on reported financials, spending plans, and management’s timelines for products that have yet to generate significant revenue.
Tesla shares traded near $379 early Wednesday, placing its market capitalization above $1.3 trillion. The earnings call will begin at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time.