Bitcoin is at a critical juncture as large holders, known as whales, try to fill the gap left by weakening institutional demand. After U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded heavy redemptions totaling $4.06 billion, the market is watching whether whale activity near the $60,000 level can stabilize prices.
ETF Outflows Weigh on Bitcoin Demand
U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have experienced seven consecutive days of net outflows. Bitcoin funds alone lost approximately $445 million in a single session, while Ethereum products saw about $12.85 million in withdrawals. Last week marked the largest weekly outflow on record for Bitcoin ETFs, with losses exceeding $1.79 billion. This selling pressure has spread across several major funds as investors reduce crypto exposure.
Previously, ETF demand absorbed Bitcoin supply during market corrections. With that support fading, the market now depends more on whales, long-term holders, and retail buyers. However, renewed institutional inflows could provide stronger price support, but current flows indicate that demand has not recovered yet.
Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium remains weak, and apparent demand has stayed negative for 208 consecutive days, recently falling to about negative 273,000 BTC. This suggests that new buying has struggled to absorb available supply.
Whale Transactions Surge Around $60,000
Large Bitcoin holders became more active as the price tested levels below $60,000. The network recorded 6,920 transactions worth more than $100,000 and 1,438 transfers above $1 million. This was the second-largest spike in whale activity in two months.
The increase indicates that some large holders viewed the decline as a possible accumulation window. However, transaction volume does not confirm that every whale transfer involved buying; some movements may include sales, exchange deposits, or wallet transfers.
Bitcoin later rebounded toward $60,000, but momentum remained weak. The relative strength index (RSI) stayed near oversold levels, while the MACD showed that buyers had not regained control. Therefore, the rebound remains “unconfirmed” without stronger spot demand and better ETF flows.
Traders are now watching $57,000 as a potential liquidation zone. A break below that level could expose Bitcoin to $54,000, near a key realized price level, testing whether whales will absorb more selling.
Long-Term Holders Begin Realizing Losses
Long-term holders are also reacting to the decline. The monthly average for the Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) fell from 1.03 to 0.8, showing that some older investors sold Bitcoin at a loss—indicating losses of about 13% over the past month.
The yearly average also declined from 2.06 to 1.46, meaning realized profits among long-term holders have narrowed as Bitcoin trades well below its recent high near $82,803.
Selling by older holders can add pressure in the short term. However, the data suggest that weaker sellers are reducing exposure near current levels, which may reduce future selling but does not confirm an immediate price reversal.
Outlook: Two Competing Forces
Bitcoin now faces two competing forces. On one side, ETF redemptions and weak spot demand weigh on the market. On the other, whale activity offers support near $60,000. A sustained recovery still requires stronger buying across ETFs, exchanges, and the wider spot market.