Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) fell sharply on June 30, undermined by a strengthening U.S. dollar and weak global cues, as traders priced in the likelihood of multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. August gold futures declined by 1.16% to settle at Rs. 1,40,757 per 10 grams, while July silver futures slipped 0.55% to Rs. 2,18,200 per kilogram.
The pressure on precious metals extended across global markets. Spot gold dropped 1.5% to $3,956.92 per ounce, putting it on track for its steepest monthly decline since October 2008—a fall of 12.7% in June alone, marking the fourth straight monthly retreat. U.S. gold futures for August delivery lost 1.7% to $3,969.30 per ounce. Spot silver slid 2% to $57.13 per ounce, platinum eased 1.1% to $1,557.21, and palladium edged down 0.4% to $1,208.17.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now anticipate three rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, with a 64% probability of a move in September. The strong dollar and elevated interest rate expectations continue to weigh on gold, which offers no yield and competes with interest-bearing assets.
“You have high inflation, high interest rate expectations, and a strong dollar, and that’s overriding all other bullish factors that are typically associated with a gold rally,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.
In the domestic market, 24-karat gold fell by Rs. 180 to Rs. 1,40,130 per 10 grams, while 22-karat gold declined by Rs. 165 to Rs. 1,28,450. City-wise, Mumbai and Kolkata quoted Rs. 1,40,130, Delhi at Rs. 1,40,280, and Chennai at Rs. 1,45,080. Meanwhile, crude oil also trended lower, with Brent futures down 0.87% at $72.51 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping 0.62% to $70.31 a barrel.
Key Levels to Watch
On the international front, gold has support at $3,994 and $3,955 per troy ounce, with resistance at $4,074 and $4,110. Silver support is at $57 and $55.40, while resistance stands at $60 and $61.60 per troy ounce. On MCX, gold finds support at Rs. 1,41,100 and Rs. 1,40,000, with resistance at Rs. 1,43,600 and Rs. 1,44,800. Silver has support at Rs. 2,16,600 and Rs. 2,14,000, and resistance at Rs. 2,22,400 and Rs. 2,25,000.