Tag: CryptoQuant

  • Bitcoin Bull Score Hits 80 as BTC Reclaims Key $83K Moving Average

    Bitcoin Bull Score Hits 80 as BTC Reclaims Key $83K Moving Average

    Bitcoin has climbed back above USD 80,000 with stronger market fundamentals than it showed during a similar price move in May. According to CryptoQuant, its Bull Score Index now stands at 80, a reading the firm describes as “Extra Bullish.”

    Bull Score Index Jumps to 80

    CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said the firm’s Bull Score Index has reached 80, signaling a marked improvement in market conditions. When Bitcoin last traded near the same price in May, the index sat at 50, which corresponds to a “Neutral” reading.

    The Bull Score Index combines multiple market and on-chain signals into a single broader assessment of Bitcoin’s health. The jump from 50 to 80 highlights a clear shift in the underlying fundamentals between the two periods.

    Technical Reclaim and Price Action

    Bitcoin is up 14% over the past week and recently touched a seven-month high near USD 87,000. The rally has pushed the price above major long-term technical levels. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju noted that Bitcoin has reclaimed its 365-day moving average near USD 83,000 and moved above USD 84,000.

    That long-term average is closely watched by market participants as a broad indicator of cycle conditions. Ju described the level as a key dividing line between bearish and bullish phases.

    On-Chain Metrics Reveal Stronger Holder Position

    Ju highlighted the market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio as another encouraging signal. MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which values each coin at the price when it last moved on-chain.

    Importantly, Ju said MVRV never fell below one during the current cycle, even during deep drawdowns. Previous bear-market bottoms saw more severe losses and stronger signs of capitulation among holders.

    Another model, the Profit and Loss (PnL) Index, also paints a healthier picture. That index combines MVRV, net unrealized profit and loss, and other profitability metrics. According to Ju, the PnL Index now shows less extreme cycle tops and bottoms, with bottom formations occurring at progressively higher levels of aggregate holder profitability. The 365-day moving average of the PnL Index has reached what he called a “meaningful inflection” point.

    ETF Inflows and Institutional Activity

    The improved sentiment extends beyond on-chain data. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded USD 998.95 million in inflows on Monday, their strongest single-day total in 11 months. Additionally, Strategy Inc. resumed buying Bitcoin after a pause of nearly a month.

    Regulatory momentum has also contributed to the positive backdrop. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has advanced its efforts to develop a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, which has helped lift overall market sentiment.

    Cycle Expectations Shift as Market Matures

    Despite the bullish signals, CryptoQuant’s Ju warns that Bitcoin’s growing size changes how much fresh capital is needed to drive similar percentage gains. He estimates that the current cycle has seen about USD 697 billion in realized-cap growth accompanying a 689% Bitcoin gain. In contrast, Bitcoin’s early years saw roughly USD 2.7 billion generate gains of over 55,000%.

    Ju now expects the current bull cycle to produce gains of about three to five times rather than another move above ten times. He also anticipates that any subsequent bear market will be milder than previous downturns, citing Bitcoin’s larger valuation and increased institutional ownership, which reduce the price impact of each new dollar entering the market.

    Looking Ahead

    Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has risen to 80 as the asset reclaims its 365-day moving average near USD 83,000. Strong ETF inflows, positive MVRV readings, and higher holder profitability all distinguish the current setup from May. Yet the central question remains whether improving on-chain conditions can sustain the rally as Bitcoin’s larger valuation demands ever-greater capital inflows.

  • Bitcoin Crosses $80,000 as Institutional Hedging and US Regulatory Moves Reshape Market Outlook

    Bitcoin Crosses $80,000 as Institutional Hedging and US Regulatory Moves Reshape Market Outlook

    Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 on Friday as cryptocurrency markets strengthened, with analysts pointing to improving market structure and U.S. regulators advancing new digital-asset measures. The move erased earlier weekly losses and lifted major tokens across the market.

    According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is moving away from a zone of weakness and toward a possible bullish phase. The firm’s bubble-versus-crash indicator, which tracks speculative excess and severe market declines, suggests that extreme conditions tied to either a major bubble or a deep crash have faded. Bitcoin has already moved through a correction and consolidation period, the analysis notes, but it has not yet reached the speculative conditions that historically appeared near major cycle peaks.

    CryptoQuant Sees Bitcoin Moving Toward a Bullish Phase

    CryptoQuant said a full bullish rally has not started yet. Instead, Bitcoin is gradually moving closer to that stage as market conditions improve after the earlier correction. The analysis does not describe the market as entering an extreme expansion phase, but it does show Bitcoin leaving weaker conditions while still lacking the speculative intensity associated with previous major tops.

    Institutional Hedging Remains Heavier Than Gold

    JPMorgan’s analysis adds another layer to the market picture by comparing institutional positioning in Bitcoin with gold. The bank said institutional investors remain more defensively positioned toward Bitcoin than toward gold. Short interest and put options linked to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, including BlackRock’s IBIT, provide investors with greater downside protection.

    Meanwhile, gold ETFs have recovered more of their 2026 outflows. Bitcoin ETFs still show heavier bearish hedging, although that positioning does not necessarily mean investors expect prices to fall.

    Hedge Unwinding Could Add Fuel to Bitcoin’s Rally

    Put options allow investors to protect portfolios against declines, while short positions can benefit when prices fall. In Bitcoin’s case, the heavier use of these tools shows that institutional portfolios retain meaningful downside protection. Yet those positions can change if Bitcoin keeps advancing. Investors may unwind hedges, while short sellers may buy Bitcoin-related exposure to close positions. The analysis suggests this process could create a potential $1 trillion market impact through hedge unwinding and short covering.

    Bitcoin’s latest price move arrived as regulatory activity accelerated in Washington. BTC rose above $81,000 and gained 5.5% over 24 hours. Ethereum gained 5%, XRP rose 6.5%, and Solana advanced 10%. Other crypto sectors also moved higher: decentralized finance tokens gained 8.5%, privacy tokens rose 6%, and governance assets climbed 11% during the same market advance.

    CFTC and SEC Measures Add to Friday’s Market Move

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted a proposal titled “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets” to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on Thursday. The filing remains pending regulatory approval, and detailed provisions have not yet become available. The proposal follows comments from CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who said the agency was “ready to ship rules” after the Senate failed to advance market structure legislation.

    The CFTC has also introduced a no-action position for providers of passive software. Its Market Participants Division said it will not recommend enforcement action against eligible providers or relevant personnel for certain registration failures involving introducing brokers.

    Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission released a temporary innovation exemption on Thursday. The measure provides a five-year conditional path for certain platforms to offer on-chain trading of tokenized stocks.

    These regulatory steps arrived as agencies pursued incremental measures while Congress remained stalled on comprehensive crypto legislation.

    Outlook

    Bitcoin’s move above $80,000 came as CryptoQuant reported improving market conditions and institutional investors maintained defensive hedges. At the same time, CFTC and SEC measures expanded regulatory activity. Further gains could prompt hedge unwinding and short covering, adding another source of Bitcoin buying pressure.

  • Ethereum Supply Tightens as Exchange Reserves Drop and Staking Locks More ETH

    Ethereum Supply Tightens as Exchange Reserves Drop and Staking Locks More ETH

    Ethereum’s available market supply continues to shrink as exchange reserves fall and staking participation rises. According to CryptoQuant data, exchanges now hold approximately 15.1 million ETH, while staking covers roughly 33.6% of total supply. ETH remains near $1,900, though weak spot demand has delayed a clear price breakout.

    Ethereum Staking Locks More Supply

    Ethereum’s staking rate has climbed to about 33.6%, up from approximately 28% at the start of 2025. This steady increase reflects a consistent transfer of ETH into staking contracts. Recent staking inflows reached about 62,200 ETH. Although that figure remains below earlier peaks, it shows that holders continue moving tokens away from immediately tradable markets.

    As a result, more ETH remains committed to the network rather than available for sale. This trend reduces the amount of liquid supply that can reach exchange order books.

    Exchange Reserves Drop to 15.1 Million ETH

    Centralized exchanges now hold about 15.1 million ETH, down from over 21 million ETH previously, according to CryptoQuant data. Recent exchange net flows stood near negative 46,300 ETH, meaning withdrawals continued to exceed deposits. This further reduces the number of tokens available for immediate trading.

    The decline has persisted during both market rallies and price corrections. CryptoQuant analysts view this consistency as a structural supply reduction rather than a temporary withdrawal cycle. More ETH now enters staking contracts as fewer tokens remain on exchanges. This combined movement restricts the supply that holders can quickly sell through secondary markets.

    However, lower supply does not automatically create higher prices. Ethereum still requires sustained spot purchases, stronger network activity, or institutional inflows to convert reduced liquidity into a price squeeze.

    Spot Demand Remains the Deciding Factor

    ETH has rebounded toward $1,900, but the market has not recorded enough buying activity to support a decisive bullish breakout. Token scarcity alone cannot produce sustained upward movement. Network activity and institutional flows also show moderate buyer interest. Therefore, reduced exchange liquidity may increase volatility without determining whether ETH moves higher or lower.

    Fresh spot capital or renewed decentralized application activity could strengthen demand. In that case, thinner exchange order books could cause faster price movements as buyers compete for fewer available tokens.

    CryptoQuant analysts identified $2,000 as an important confirmation level. A sustained move above that price would support the supply-squeeze scenario and show that demand has started absorbing limited liquidity.

    By contrast, renewed deposits to exchanges would weaken the setup. Rising exchange balances would increase the available selling supply and reduce pressure created by staking and persistent withdrawals.

    Institutional demand or stronger application activity could still activate the restricted supply conditions. Without those catalysts, lower reserves may remain a passive market factor rather than a direct price driver.

  • Nearly 40% of Altcoins Hit All-Time Lows: Could a Selective Recovery Be Next?

    Nearly 40% of Altcoins Hit All-Time Lows: Could a Selective Recovery Be Next?

    The cryptocurrency market has entered another challenging phase, especially for altcoins. Recent data from CryptoQuant shows that nearly 40% of altcoins now trade close to their all-time lows. During the latest market decline, this figure even reached 45% after Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 for a short period. These numbers show how much pressure the broader crypto market has faced over the past few months.

    Even though Bitcoin has managed to stay stronger than many other digital assets, thousands of altcoins have continued to lose value. Many projects now trade at only a small part of the prices they reached during previous market highs. This situation has raised an important question across the crypto community. Could such low prices lead to the next market rebound, or does more weakness still lie ahead?

    Why Many Altcoins Have Lost Value

    Several reasons have pushed altcoin prices lower. One of the biggest reasons is the huge rise in the number of new crypto projects. Reports suggest that nearly 60,000 new tokens enter the market every day. Such a massive supply spreads investor money across countless projects instead of allowing capital to flow into a smaller group of coins.

    This rapid growth has made competition much harder. Many projects fail to attract enough buyers after launch. Without fresh demand, prices continue to fall. Some projects also struggle to build useful products or active communities, which makes recovery even more difficult.

    At the same time, the total amount of new money entering the crypto market has not grown at the same speed as the number of new tokens. As a result, many altcoins receive very little attention, while only a limited number continue to attract strong interest.

    Bitcoin Continues to Lead the Market

    Another important reason behind weak altcoin performance is Bitcoin’s strong position. Investors have shown greater confidence in Bitcoin than in smaller cryptocurrencies. During uncertain market conditions, many traders prefer to keep funds in Bitcoin since it has a longer history and higher liquidity.

    Market data also shows that the Altcoin Season Index remains below the level that usually signals a broad altcoin rally. This means Bitcoin still controls most of the market’s attention. Until that balance changes, many altcoins may continue to struggle despite occasional short-term price gains.

    Global Conditions Affect Crypto Prices

    The crypto market does not move on its own. Economic conditions around the world also influence investor decisions. Inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, changes in exchange-traded fund flows, and cautious market sentiment have reduced demand for risky assets.

    Even after Bitcoin recovered from recent lows, investors did not quickly shift money into altcoins. Instead, many preferred to wait for stronger signs of stability before taking additional risk. This cautious approach has kept pressure on smaller cryptocurrencies.

    Can Such Low Prices Lead to a Recovery?

    Market history offers both hope and caution. In previous crypto cycles, periods of extreme weakness sometimes came before strong recoveries. Very low prices often attracted long-term investors who believed that quality projects still had room to grow.

    Since almost 40% of altcoins now trade near their historical lows, some market experts believe attractive opportunities may appear for patient investors. If Bitcoin remains stable and fresh money enters the crypto market, some capital could move into selected altcoins. Such a shift has happened during earlier market cycles after Bitcoin completed the first stage of a recovery.

    However, history does not guarantee that the same pattern will repeat. Every market cycle develops under different conditions.

    Why This Cycle May Be Different

    CryptoQuant analysts believe this cycle has several unique features. The biggest difference is the enormous number of available tokens. Millions of investors now have thousands of projects to choose from, which makes it much harder for every altcoin to receive enough demand.

    Many projects also lack strong products, real users, or sustainable business models. Without clear value, some tokens may never return to their previous record prices. Instead of a market-wide rally, only projects with solid fundamentals may benefit from future growth.

    CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has also suggested that future altcoin seasons could become much more selective. Rather than lifting almost every token, new investment may flow mainly into projects with strong use cases and healthy financial activity.

    Where Market Attention Could Move

    Recent analysis shows that investors have started to focus more on projects that deliver practical value instead of pure speculation. Areas such as decentralized finance, real-world asset tokenization, artificial intelligence, perpetual decentralized exchanges, and major blockchain infrastructure have received greater attention.

    One example often mentioned by analysts is Hyperliquid. The project has attracted interest for its revenue generation and token buyback model. Such features help separate stronger projects from many speculative tokens that depend only on market excitement.

    Why This Matters

    This trend signals a structural shift where historical, market-wide altcoin rallies are replaced by extreme dilution. With 60,000 new tokens daily, capital is fragmented, meaning future recoveries will selectively reward projects with genuine utility and revenue over pure speculation.

    The Road Ahead

    Several signals could show whether the altcoin market is ready for a broader recovery. Bitcoin must continue to hold key support levels, while Bitcoin dominance may need to decline before money spreads into smaller cryptocurrencies. The Altcoin Season Index would also need to rise toward levels that usually support a wider rally. Stronger trading activity and fresh investment across the crypto market could further improve market confidence.

    The latest data clearly shows that almost 40% of altcoins remain close to their all-time lows. This reflects one of the weakest periods for the sector in recent years. Although such conditions have sometimes appeared before market recoveries, no guarantee exists that history will repeat itself. The next recovery, if it arrives, may reward only projects with strong technology, real adoption, and lasting value instead of the entire altcoin market.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    1. Why are so many altcoins trading near their all-time lows? An overwhelming oversupply of roughly 60,000 new token launches daily has diluted available capital, while limited fresh market liquidity has failed to keep pace with the massive expansion.
    2. Does this extreme market drop guarantee a major altcoin rally? No. Historical cycles often showed broad recoveries from these lows, but current market saturation means many weak or purely speculative projects may never recover their previous valuation highs.
    3. Why is Bitcoin performing so much better than smaller cryptocurrencies? During periods of market uncertainty, investors treat Bitcoin as a safe haven due to its long history, deeper institutional liquidity, and the security of spot exchange-traded fund inflows.
    4. Which cryptocurrency sectors are currently attracting the most investor attention? Capital is increasingly shifting toward practical, revenue-generating sectors including decentralized finance, real-world asset tokenization, artificial intelligence, perpetual decentralized exchanges, and essential blockchain network infrastructure.
    5. What key signals could trigger a broader altcoin market recovery? A sustained recovery requires Bitcoin to maintain solid price floors, a visible decline in overall Bitcoin dominance, and a sharp rise in the official Altcoin Season Index.
  • Bitcoin Realized P&L Ratio Plunges to Lowest Since FTX Collapse as Market Stress Mounts

    Bitcoin Realized P&L Ratio Plunges to Lowest Since FTX Collapse as Market Stress Mounts

    Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio has dropped to a 43-month low, reaching a level last seen in the wake of the FTX collapse in December 2022. The reading has drawn renewed attention to on-chain signals that have historically appeared near market bottoms. According to CryptoQuant, the ratio now stands at -0.35, indicating that losses are dominating realized market activity.

    The latest data comes as Bitcoin trades near $59,000 after a sharp decline from its October peak of $126,080. Market sentiment has shown a slight improvement over the past 10 days, with Bitcoin rising more than 7% from its June 25 low near $58,190.

    Bitcoin P&L Ratio Returns to FTX-Era Levels

    The Bitcoin realized profit and loss ratio measures the net share of Bitcoin held in profit or loss relative to total supply. A negative value signals that losses are overwhelming profits across the network. CryptoQuant noted that the indicator has reached similar levels before major recovery phases. “Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” the firm stated, citing examples from 2015 and 2019 when the ratio moved below -0.35 before Bitcoin later rallied.

    While the latest reading does not confirm a price bottom, it shows that Bitcoin holders are realizing heavy losses across the market. This type of pressure often emerges when leveraged traders exit and weaker holders sell into fear. The drop also followed stress tied to Strategy’s Stretch preferred stock, which fell below its $100 par value and traded under $75, raising questions about its dividend structure and adding to selling pressure across Bitcoin markets.

    Analysts Weigh In on Market Bottom Timing

    Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan suggested the market may be nearing a floor. He said the recent sell-off linked to Strategy helped remove excess leverage from the system. “As the market continues to sort things out, I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever — and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall,” Hougan remarked.

    Adam Livingston, an analyst at Swan Bitcoin, pointed to Bitcoin’s current level relative to its realized price, which represents the network’s aggregate on-chain cost basis. He noted that Bitcoin is trading only 16% above that realized price. Historically, similar setups have produced stronger forward returns, with gains of 41% over six months and 81% over 12 months. However, Livingston warned that waiting for the exact low is difficult: “The bottom never announces itself.” He argued that Bitcoin now trades at a discount, even if buying feels uncomfortable for many investors.

    Diverging Trends: ETF Outflows vs. Whale Accumulation

    Bitcoin market flows are currently showing two contrasting trends. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record $4 billion in outflows in June, marking the weakest monthly flow since the products launched. At the same time, wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC absorbed $16.7 billion worth of Bitcoin over two weeks, according to data.

    This split indicates that ETF investors and large wallet holders are acting differently. ETF holders reduced exposure amid weaker risk appetite and shifting macroeconomic expectations, while large holders treated the sell-off as a buying opportunity. Recent ETF data has improved, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs topping $200 million in daily inflows for the first time since May, hinting at renewed demand after heavy June redemptions.

    Traders are now watching whether whale accumulation continues and ETF flows stabilize. Bitcoin still faces weak sentiment and price uncertainty, but on-chain loss levels now match areas that have appeared near past crypto market cycle lows.