SBI Research has sharply upgraded its outlook for India’s Balance of Payments (BoP) in FY27, moving from a projected deficit to a substantial $51 billion surplus. The revision is attributed to robust inflows under the Reserve Bank of India’s FCNR(B) scheme, alongside additional measures that have boosted foreign capital.
The updated forecast reflects a significant improvement in India’s external financial position. SBI now expects the current account deficit to remain contained between 1% and 1.2% of GDP, while capital inflows could rise to approximately $103 billion. The research note states, “Thus the overall balance of payment would be in surplus of more than $50 billion for FY27. This is way above our previous estimate of $65–70 billion deficit.”
Key drivers include the strong response to the FCNR(B) deposit scheme, which has already garnered $17.4 billion. SBI anticipates total FCNR(B) inflows reaching $65–$70 billion before the scheme closes on September 30. Combined inflows from FCNR(B), Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowing (OFCB), and External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) could total $80–$85 billion.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that the central bank’s recent measures have attracted nearly $32 billion from overseas, mostly via FCNR(B) deposits, strengthening India’s external buffers. He also clarified the RBI’s stance on the rupee: “We do not target any specific exchange rate or band for the rupee. Our intervention, whenever necessary, is targeted to curb excessive volatility.”
SBI cautions that the rupee may face pressure after the FCNR(B) window closes, but strong foreign inflows, healthy forex reserves, and steady investment should keep India’s external position stable during FY27.