IBM shares plunged more than 22% in premarket trading Tuesday after the company issued a preliminary second-quarter earnings warning, citing weaker software and infrastructure results as customers redirected spending toward AI hardware. The warning triggered a broad sell-off across major software stocks, including Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Intuit, which fell between 3% and 5%.
IBM expects second-quarter revenue of $17.2 billion, up 1% year-over-year but below the analyst consensus of $17.86 billion compiled by LSEG. Adjusted earnings are projected at $2.93 per share, compared to the forecast of $3.02 per share. The company attributed the shortfall to a significant shift in customer spending during the final weeks of June, as businesses accelerated capital expenditures on servers, storage, and memory chips for artificial intelligence systems ahead of anticipated price increases and supply constraints.
CEO Arvind Krishna acknowledged that while IBM anticipated some supply-chain pressure, it “did not anticipate the magnitude” of the spending shift. He also noted that rapidly evolving cybersecurity concerns distracted clients and impacted purchasing decisions. Preliminary figures show software revenue rose 5% in the quarter, consulting revenue remained flat, and infrastructure revenue declined 7%, driven by weaker Z mainframe performance and related transaction-processing software.
Despite the overall miss, several business areas posted gains. Red Hat revenue increased 11%, while recent acquisitions HashiCorp and Confluent delivered stronger results. Distributed infrastructure revenue rose 37%, supported by demand for Power systems and storage products. The z17 mainframe program reached nearly 130% of the comparable z16 stage, and the distributed infrastructure backlog stood at approximately $500 million at quarter-end.
IBM reported a GAAP gross profit margin of 57.7%, down one percentage point year-over-year, and an adjusted gross margin of 59.4%, down 0.7 percentage points. GAAP earnings were $2.27 per share, while adjusted earnings rose 5% to $2.93. Operating cash flow through June totaled $7.8 billion, and free cash flow reached $4.8 billion.
The earnings warning pressured the broader software sector before Tuesday’s market open. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dropped more than 4%. Analysts noted that IBM’s update reflects a broader shift in corporate technology budgets toward data centers, chips, storage, and networking equipment, leaving less quarterly spending available for traditional software purchases.
IBM plans to release its complete second-quarter financial results on July 22, with an earnings call scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern Time. Management stated that current figures are preliminary and may differ slightly from the final numbers. The company will provide further detail and discuss full-year expectations during the call.