The Indian rupee opened 37 paise higher at Rs. 94.30 against the US dollar on Wednesday, recovering from the previous close of 94.67. The jump was fueled by a steep decline in global crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures falling 1.80% to $72.41 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping 1.59% to $69.22 per barrel.
Falling Crude Oil Strengthens the Rupee
The rupee’s rally was driven by a sharp correction in global crude oil prices. Oil prices slipped below $73 a barrel, matching levels seen before the Middle East conflict, after reports indicated that oil tankers had resumed transit through the Strait of Hormuz following progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations. For India, which imports around 85% of its energy requirements, lower energy prices provide significant relief by reducing the import bill, improving the current account deficit, and easing inflationary pressure. This fundamental support bolsters the domestic currency.
RBI Intervention Prevents Slide Beyond 95
The rupee traded in a wide 50-paise range on Wednesday, briefly approaching the 95 mark before recovering sharply. Dealers believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened in the foreign exchange market via public-sector banks to curb excessive volatility. Analysts at Finrex Treasury Advisors noted, “With oil prices near $72.50 per barrel, the rupee is in the most comfortable zone despite a higher dollar index and weaker Asian currencies. While the RBI does not target a specific exchange rate, it intervenes to prevent excessive volatility.” Additionally, remarks from RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra calmed forward premium markets, further boosting sentiment.
Strong US Dollar Continues to Limit Upside
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained near 101.50, close to a one-year high, as investors priced in more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in a high chance of additional US monetary tightening this year, keeping US Treasury yields near multi-month highs and supporting dollar-denominated assets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now expect three rate hikes from the Fed in 2026, with a 67% probability of a September hike.
Rupee Outlook
Pinky Yadav, Commodity Fundamental Analyst at Choice Broking, said the rupee started the day strong at 94.30 against the dollar, aided by a correction in global crude prices to pre-Iran war levels. The immediate direction of the rupee will depend on crude oil prices, US dollar strength, foreign portfolio investment flows, and the RBI’s intervention strategy.
