Bitcoin buyers who entered near $107,000 are showing lower realized losses, a pattern that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode links to early bear-market bottom signals. Bitcoin is now eyeing $69,000 as a key resistance level while trading near $64,000 amid weak liquidity and macroeconomic pressure.
Realized Losses Begin to Cool
Glassnode analyst Cryptovizart focused on Bitcoin held for one to two years. Many in this group bought between July 2024 and July 2025, when Bitcoin rose from about $62,800 to $107,000. The later decline left the cohort holding losses.
As prices stayed below entry levels, these holders sold coins at a loss. Cryptovizart said bear markets have struggled to form stable bottoms until this group reduces selling. The cohort’s 30-day average realized loss passed $75 million before turning lower.
Cryptovizart described the reversal as an early signal, not confirmation. “When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over,” the analyst wrote, the heaviest distribution phase has often passed. The setup was ‘worth watching closely.’
As price rallies toward $66k, LTH realized loss volume is spiking!
Cycle-top buyers are using the relief rally as an exit opportunity, locking in losses at a smaller margin than the sub-60k lows allowed. Selling into strength rather than waiting for recovery is a pattern… pic.twitter.com/Ef01MgPK4C
— cryptovizart (@cryptovizart) July 15, 2026
Bitcoin Faces a $69,000 Cost Basis Test
Glassnode placed the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000. This level sits close to Bitcoin’s 2021 record high and may act as a resistance area. Buyers who entered near that price could sell at break-even.
Glassnode said the first test would ‘likely draw a strong reaction.’ A move above $69,000 could allow the recovery to extend. A rejection could keep Bitcoin inside its range. This reflects uncertainty, as the market has not tested the level during this rebound.
Two-month stochastic RSI readings show conditions linked to earlier reversals. However, that indicator does not confirm a bottom alone. Bitcoin trades below $69,000 and near the lower end of its recent range.
Macro Pressure Keeps Bitcoin Near $64,000
Bitcoin fell 1.05% over 24 hours to $64,102.24, while the crypto market value dropped 0.87%. The decline followed risk-off trading linked to US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and inflation concerns. Bitcoin showed a 57% correlation with gold.
Spot volume fell about 6.29% to $27.16 billion, showing limited conviction. Bitcoin also slipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $64,480. Its 14-day RSI stood at 37.19, indicating weak momentum without a confirmed bullish divergence.
Traders are watching $63,800 as support. A daily close below that level could expose $63,000. Meanwhile, a volume-backed return above $64,480 could support stabilization. Upcoming US PCE data may shape Federal Reserve expectations and demand.
Dormant Whale Moves 5,908 BTC
A wallet inactive for eight years transferred 5,908 BTC worth about $383 million to a new address. The holder received the coins near the 2017 market peak, when Bitcoin traded around $16,000. The position cost about $100 million and now carries an estimated gain of 284%.
A #BitcoinOG transferred 5,908 $BTC($382.67M) to a new wallet after being dormant for 8 years.
The OG received 5,908 $BTC 8 years ago when $BTC was trading at $16,865 and had held it ever since. The position is now up $283M (+284%).
https://t.co/x77s7oSDhC pic.twitter.com/bw4dUN7y13
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 16, 2026
The transfer did not go to a known exchange wallet, so available data does not show a direct sale. The coins moved from an older address format to a newer bc1q address. Such transfers can involve custody changes, key rotation, estate planning or preparations for an over-the-counter deal.
Unlike recent long-term holders selling at losses, this wallet holds a large profit and has not sold through an exchange. The move adds another large on-chain transaction as Bitcoin buyers, older holders, and short-term traders react to prices near $64,000.