Tag: Glassnode

  • Bitcoin Faces Pivotal $84K Test as PCE, Jobs, and ISM Data Loom

    Bitcoin Faces Pivotal $84K Test as PCE, Jobs, and ISM Data Loom

    Bitcoin Holds Above $82.5K Support Entering Data-Heavy Week

    Bitcoin entered a critical U.S. data week near $84,000 after dipping to $82,563 on September 28. A string of inflation, manufacturing, and labor market reports could reshape expectations for interest rates and risk assets.

    Rising Treasury yields, oil prices above $90 a barrel, and volatile bond markets are adding pressure. The week begins with August personal income and outlays on September 30, followed by the ISM manufacturing report on October 1 and the September employment report on October 2.

    Glassnode Levels Provide Key Reference Points

    Glassnode analysts have highlighted the $84,000 to $85,000 range as a dense cluster of long-term holder acquisition prices. Bitcoin briefly slipped below that zone during Monday’s drop, making a close back above it a constructive signal.

    Additional market levels include the True Market Mean near $77,000 and the mean MVRV reference around $96,700. Glassnode’s September 21 Market Pulse also noted net spot taker buying, rising trading volume, and elevated futures leverage, while weekly ETF flows remained negative.

    The quality of any bounce matters. Fresh spot demand, stronger volume, and renewed ETF buying would offer more durable support than a short-term futures-driven recovery.

    Will September Break Its Historical Pattern?

    Bitcoin has gained about 7% in September after rallying 25% in August. Historically, every positive August since 2013 has been followed by a negative September. With two days left in the month, a positive September would break that sequence and mark a third consecutive monthly gain.

    Oil and Supply Chain Risks Could Influence the Inflation Outlook

    Energy markets remain a wildcard. The Energy Information Administration estimated Brent spot crude averaged $91 a barrel in August, up $7 from July. The International Energy Agency also pointed to severe restrictions on Gulf diesel and gasoil exports during August, while shipping incidents near Hormuz were reported on September 21 and 23.

    Because the August PCE report lands on September 30, it will not fully reflect late-September changes in fuel, freight, or factory costs. The ISM manufacturing report on October 1 may therefore offer a timelier inflation signal. ISM’s August Prices Index stood at 71.1, while Supplier Deliveries reached 59.3. A higher September Prices Index, slower deliveries, or stronger cost comments would point to renewed pressure on manufacturers.

    Jobs Data and Fed Rate Expectations Take Center Stage

    Labor market data begins with the August JOLTS report on September 29, followed by September payrolls on October 2. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, citing elevated inflation and steady job gains.

    A moderate cooling in labor conditions could reduce pressure on the Fed. However, a sharply weaker employment report might shift attention from inflation toward growth risks.

    Bond Volatility and Q4 Liquidity Concerns

    The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5.2%, and the MOVE index has moved above 100, near its year-to-date highs. Oil above $90 adds another inflation worry, while gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.

    Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s quarter remains strong. A positive September would put Q3 2026 more than 40% higher and mark the first positive third quarter since Q3 2025. Historical CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin’s average fourth-quarter gain is around 77%, but Q4 could bring fresh tests for liquidity and risk appetite.

    Anthropic’s reported November IPO plans and the U.S. midterm elections could add further volatility. The clearest cross-market test may come from a soft August PCE reading followed by a higher September ISM prices reading. That sequence could initially ease Treasury yields before renewed cost concerns push rate expectations higher.

    This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

  • Altcoin Momentum Builds as Glassnode Index Reaches 75, but Full Season Remains Uncertain

    Altcoin Momentum Builds as Glassnode Index Reaches 75, but Full Season Remains Uncertain

    Glassnode’s latest data reveals a notable uptick in altcoin momentum as of September 2026, with the firm’s Altcoin Cycle Signal climbing to 75. However, broader market indicators present a more cautious picture, suggesting that while conditions are favoring altcoins, a sustained “altcoin season” is not yet confirmed.

    Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal

    Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal, which tracks the performance of the top 250 altcoins excluding stablecoins, rose to 75 in late August. The signal indicates that market conditions have shifted toward an altcoin-favoring phase. Yet, Glassnode’s September 15 Market Compass report cautioned that the rally that drove this reading subsequently faded, warning that simultaneous gains across assets can occur during riskier market phases.

    Mixed Signals from Broader Indicators

    Another widely followed measure, BlockchainCenter’s Altcoin Season Index, stood at just 53 on September 22, well below the 75 threshold typically used to define an altcoin season. This index measures how many of the top 50 cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin over the previous 90 days. The divergence between the two indices highlights an important dynamic: altcoins can rise in dollar terms without necessarily outperforming Bitcoin. Glassnode acknowledged this in its September research, noting that while altcoin market capitalization increased, altcoins had not yet taken meaningful market share from Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin Remains a Key Driver

    Bitcoin’s performance remains crucial for any broader rotation. Glassnode’s recent analysis shows Bitcoin consolidating after a period of gains, with capital flows and derivatives activity continuing to influence market direction. For a more established altcoin rotation, market participants will likely watch Bitcoin dominance, relative altcoin performance, and trading breadth. A sustained improvement across these indicators would provide stronger evidence of a broad-based shift.

    Outlook for a 2026 Altcoin Season

    The market appears to be in a transition phase. Whether this develops into a sustained altcoin season in 2026 will depend on whether altcoins can continue outperforming Bitcoin over a longer period. Until then, investors should approach the current momentum with caution, as the signals remain mixed.

  • Bitcoin Reclaims $65,000: ETF Inflows, Softer CPI, and Policy Hopes Fuel Recovery

    Bitcoin Reclaims $65,000: ETF Inflows, Softer CPI, and Policy Hopes Fuel Recovery

    Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $65,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in roughly a month, before settling at $62,779.89. The recovery came just days after the leading cryptocurrency dipped below $62,000, signaling that buyers remain active despite geopolitical risks and uncertain U.S. monetary policy.

    The rebound also lifted crypto-related stocks, with Circle and Coinbase shares rising at least 2% as investor appetite improved. The shift followed Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected June CPI report, which prompted traders to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations.

    CPI Relief Sparks Fresh ETF Inflows

    According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive on Tuesday after Monday’s heavy outflow of $424.66 million, recording net inflows of roughly $181 million. This could be an early sign of renewed institutional buying. “If the CPI data holds and the Fed signals a credible pivot path, the conditions for sustained ETF inflows are back in place,” said Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen. He added that he is watching whether the latest flows are “durable rather than one-session repositioning.”

    Technical Resistance Meets Record Leverage

    The $65,000 level is a major resistance zone. Bitcoin fell as Middle East tensions escalated, pushing Brent crude to $84.01, but buyers stepped in below $62,000. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported that leveraged traders on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid have built exposure exceeding any previously recorded levels: “Top traders on Hyperliquid are aggressively long bitcoin, showing some of the highest sustained long positioning we’ve recorded. This exposure exceeds what was seen during the last run to around $83,000, pointing to strong speculative demand at these levels.”

    Policy Developments Support Cautious Optimism

    Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, said the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year “may be better than markets appreciate.” Polymarket traders recently priced a 42% chance of the bill being signed into law in 2026, down from over 70% in May. Bitcoin remains negative for the year after a sharp sell-off in June pushed it below $60,000, but repeated buying below $62,000 suggests sellers may be losing momentum. A strong close above $65,000 could confirm a broader recovery, while rejection at that level may return control to bears ahead of the July Fed meeting.

    FAQs

    1. Why did Bitcoin cross $65,000 again? Bitcoin recovered after softer US CPI data improved risk sentiment. Positive spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and renewed buying below $62,000 also supported the move.
    2. How much inflow did spot Bitcoin ETFs record? According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $181 million in net inflows, following Monday’s heavy outflow of $424.66 million.
    3. Why is the $65,000 level important for Bitcoin? The $65,000 level is a major resistance zone. A strong close above it could confirm recovery, while rejection may return momentum to sellers.
    4. What did Glassnode say about Bitcoin traders? Glassnode said top traders on Hyperliquid are aggressively long Bitcoin, with some of the highest sustained long positions it has recorded.
    5. Can the CLARITY Act support Bitcoin prices? Yes, policy clarity could improve institutional confidence. Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell said the bill’s odds may be better than markets currently expect.

    Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always do your own research.

  • Bitcoin Nears $69K Resistance as $107K Buyers Show Early Bear-Market Bottom Signals

    Bitcoin Nears $69K Resistance as $107K Buyers Show Early Bear-Market Bottom Signals

    Bitcoin buyers who entered near $107,000 are showing lower realized losses, a pattern that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode links to early bear-market bottom signals. Bitcoin is now eyeing $69,000 as a key resistance level while trading near $64,000 amid weak liquidity and macroeconomic pressure.

    Realized Losses Begin to Cool

    Glassnode analyst Cryptovizart focused on Bitcoin held for one to two years. Many in this group bought between July 2024 and July 2025, when Bitcoin rose from about $62,800 to $107,000. The later decline left the cohort holding losses.

    As prices stayed below entry levels, these holders sold coins at a loss. Cryptovizart said bear markets have struggled to form stable bottoms until this group reduces selling. The cohort’s 30-day average realized loss passed $75 million before turning lower.

    Cryptovizart described the reversal as an early signal, not confirmation. “When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over,” the analyst wrote, the heaviest distribution phase has often passed. The setup was ‘worth watching closely.’

    Bitcoin Faces a $69,000 Cost Basis Test

    Glassnode placed the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000. This level sits close to Bitcoin’s 2021 record high and may act as a resistance area. Buyers who entered near that price could sell at break-even.

    Glassnode said the first test would ‘likely draw a strong reaction.’ A move above $69,000 could allow the recovery to extend. A rejection could keep Bitcoin inside its range. This reflects uncertainty, as the market has not tested the level during this rebound.

    Two-month stochastic RSI readings show conditions linked to earlier reversals. However, that indicator does not confirm a bottom alone. Bitcoin trades below $69,000 and near the lower end of its recent range.

    Macro Pressure Keeps Bitcoin Near $64,000

    Bitcoin fell 1.05% over 24 hours to $64,102.24, while the crypto market value dropped 0.87%. The decline followed risk-off trading linked to US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and inflation concerns. Bitcoin showed a 57% correlation with gold.

    Spot volume fell about 6.29% to $27.16 billion, showing limited conviction. Bitcoin also slipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $64,480. Its 14-day RSI stood at 37.19, indicating weak momentum without a confirmed bullish divergence.

    Traders are watching $63,800 as support. A daily close below that level could expose $63,000. Meanwhile, a volume-backed return above $64,480 could support stabilization. Upcoming US PCE data may shape Federal Reserve expectations and demand.

    Dormant Whale Moves 5,908 BTC

    A wallet inactive for eight years transferred 5,908 BTC worth about $383 million to a new address. The holder received the coins near the 2017 market peak, when Bitcoin traded around $16,000. The position cost about $100 million and now carries an estimated gain of 284%.

    The transfer did not go to a known exchange wallet, so available data does not show a direct sale. The coins moved from an older address format to a newer bc1q address. Such transfers can involve custody changes, key rotation, estate planning or preparations for an over-the-counter deal.

    Unlike recent long-term holders selling at losses, this wallet holds a large profit and has not sold through an exchange. The move adds another large on-chain transaction as Bitcoin buyers, older holders, and short-term traders react to prices near $64,000.