Indian equity benchmarks ended Monday’s session on a mixed note as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran sent crude oil prices soaring, fueling inflation concerns and dampening investor sentiment. The Sensex recovered from early losses to close 83 points higher at 77,653, while the Nifty 50 pared its intraday decline to end nearly flat at 24,202.
Markets opened sharply lower after renewed military exchanges in the Middle East pushed Brent crude nearly 4% higher to around $79 a barrel. The surge in oil prices raised worries about India’s import bill, corporate profitability, and the possibility of prolonged higher interest rates. Weak global cues, a softer rupee, and cautious trading ahead of the first-quarter earnings season added to the pressure.
Key Market Movers
Despite the weak start, selective buying in heavyweight stocks helped benchmarks recover. IT stocks led the rebound, with the Nifty IT index surging around 4%. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) rallied 8% over two sessions after announcing a multi-year AI-powered network transformation deal with ABB. Infosys and HCLTech also gained. ICICI Bank held near Rs. 1,400, while Axis Bank saw mild profit booking.
Kalyan Jewellers extended its 47% rally after a strong Q1 business update, though analysts flagged elevated valuations. Goodluck India rose nearly 3% on a 2:1 bonus share announcement. Meanwhile, Swiggy slipped over 2% after the FSSAI issued nine notices to its Instamart unit over alleged violations.
Geopolitical and Global Impact
Escalating US-Iran tensions triggered a global risk-off sentiment. Brent crude climbed to $78.68 a barrel, and the US dollar strengthened. Japan’s Nikkei fell nearly 2%, and South Korea’s Kospi plunged 9% as SK Hynix tumbled 15% after profit booking. Gold prices dropped more than 1% as rising oil revived inflation fears. The Indian rupee weakened to a one-month low of 95.76 per dollar, though likely RBI intervention limited losses.
India’s Volatility Index (VIX) surged over 9%, reflecting heightened investor caution. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled $46 billion from emerging market equities in June, with heavy selling in South Korea and Taiwan tech stocks. However, FIIs trimmed stakes in nearly 280 BSE 500 companies yet some stocks rallied up to 220% in three months.
Analyst Views and Outlook
Goldman Sachs turned optimistic on Indian equities, projecting the Nifty 50 to reach 26,500 by June 2027. Axis Direct’s Rajesh Palviya said the near-term trend remains positive as long as Nifty holds above 24,100, with upside targets of 24,350 and 24,550. InvestorAI remains overweight on jewellery, cement, and healthcare, betting on domestic demand resilience. However, it warned that Brent crude above $80 per barrel is the biggest near-term risk, especially if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist.
Market participants will closely watch US inflation data due on July 14, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony, and further developments in the Middle East for directional cues.