Tag: Long-Term Holders

  • Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking as On-Chain Metrics Hint at Market Bottom

    Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking as On-Chain Metrics Hint at Market Bottom

    Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have started to sell after months of continued accumulation, signaling a potential new phase in the market. Despite profit-taking by seasoned investors—which is likely to create short-term selling pressure—several on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin could be entering conditions more commonly seen near market bottoms.

    On-chain data reveals that LTH supply recently began declining after climbing close to 16 million BTC, while the supply of LTHs in short-term holding periods remains comparatively low. Historically, after extended price rallies, long-term investors have sold part of their holdings, allowing new investors to enter the market.

    On-Chain Indicators Suggest Accumulation

    The LTH/STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has moved closer to 1, indicating that the profits of long-term and short-term holders are converging. Historically, this pattern occurred in 2015, 2019, and 2022, with selling pressure easing slowly over time and accumulation resuming. While the ratio has not yet entered its traditional accumulation zone, current readings suggest the market is heading further toward that zone.

    This cycle also differs from previous ones. Bitcoin’s first major price increase in the current cycle took approximately 31 months to achieve—much longer than the 8 to 17 months seen in past cycles. This extended timeline suggests that investor behavior has evolved alongside the rising institutionalization of the market.

    Also Read: Bitcoin Security Faces New Questions After the Coldcard Wallet Hack

    Fear Persists Despite Improving Fundamentals

    LTH supply recently started declining after climbing close to 16 million BTC. Currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 40, indicating neutral market sentiment. Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has been squeezed to the 1.21–1.22 zone. Historically, when sentiment turned negative while on-chain fundamentals improved, new accumulation phases have begun. Meanwhile, long-term investor supply remains near record levels, suggesting that established investors are holding onto most of their Bitcoin after recent distributions.

    Although no single indicator can accurately identify a market bottom, the combination of record long-term holder conviction, compressed valuations, subdued speculative activity, and cautious investor sentiment increasingly resembles conditions seen before previous Bitcoin recoveries.

    In the short term, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase to what could become an accumulation phase. Whether this marks the cycle bottom will depend on overall macroeconomic conditions, investor demand, and the market’s ability to absorb continued selling pressure from long-term investors.

  • Bitcoin Bounces Above $60K as Long-Term Holders Resume Accumulation

    Bitcoin Bounces Above $60K as Long-Term Holders Resume Accumulation

    Bitcoin recovered to around $60,350 on July 2, gaining 2.37% in 24 hours as the US dollar and crude oil prices dropped to four-month lows. The rebound followed a dip to a 21-month low earlier in the week, with improved risk sentiment helping the cryptocurrency reclaim the key $60,000 level.

    Weaker Dollar Supports Bitcoin’s Recovery

    CoinSwitch noted that the dollar’s retreat created a favorable environment for Bitcoin, as long-term investors increased their holdings during the recent market decline. The firm reported that long-term holders added 270,000 BTC within two weeks, absorbing some of the selling pressure from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows.

    Funding rates remained positive for three consecutive days, indicating that derivatives traders continued to favor long positions despite June’s steep decline. CoinSwitch advised traders to wait for a confirmed close above $61,000 before treating the rebound as a reliable shift in Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

    ETF Outflows Meet Renewed Accumulation

    Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows during June, adding selling pressure as Bitcoin lost about 20% across the month. However, Glassnode data showed that the long-term holder net position change returned to positive territory after an extended period of distribution.

    The indicator tracks the 30-day supply change among wallets holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, which Glassnode classifies as long-term holders. Current net accumulation ranges between approximately 50,000 and 100,000 BTC, according to Glassnode’s chart. Previous bullish buying waves approached 400,000 BTC.

    Glassnode said transitions from distribution to accumulation have often appeared during weak markets, as committed investors increase exposure while shorter-term participants reduce risk.

    Buying Spreads Across Bitcoin Wallet Groups

    Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score increased over the past month, suggesting that buying expanded across several wallet groups rather than remaining concentrated within one category.

    • Wallets holding less than one BTC recorded the strongest score, near 0.8 to 0.9.
    • Holders of between 100 and 1,000 BTC showed similar accumulation.
    • Wallets holding between one and 100 BTC posted moderate readings of about 0.6 to 0.7.
    • Wallets containing 1,000 to 10,000 BTC also became net buyers.

    By contrast, wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC remained near neutral, with readings around 0.4 to 0.5 and limited evidence of aggressive accumulation. Glassnode said widespread buying can support longer-term market recoveries, but cautioned that Bitcoin has not entered a complete accumulation phase.

    Meanwhile, investors continued monitoring the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report, which could influence expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. Mudrex Lead Quant Analyst Akshat Siddhant identified $61,000 as the next important upside level, while $58,300 remained Bitcoin’s main support area.

    What’s Next?

    Bitcoin’s rebound above $60,000 gained support from a weaker US dollar and renewed accumulation by long-term holders, although ETF outflows and cautious whale activity still limit confidence. Traders should watch for a confirmed break above $61,000 and the $58,300 support level before judging whether the recovery can continue.

  • Can Bitcoin Whales Offset Record $4.06 Billion ETF Outflows to Prevent Further Price Drops?

    Can Bitcoin Whales Offset Record $4.06 Billion ETF Outflows to Prevent Further Price Drops?

    Bitcoin is at a critical juncture as large holders, known as whales, try to fill the gap left by weakening institutional demand. After U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded heavy redemptions totaling $4.06 billion, the market is watching whether whale activity near the $60,000 level can stabilize prices.

    ETF Outflows Weigh on Bitcoin Demand

    U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have experienced seven consecutive days of net outflows. Bitcoin funds alone lost approximately $445 million in a single session, while Ethereum products saw about $12.85 million in withdrawals. Last week marked the largest weekly outflow on record for Bitcoin ETFs, with losses exceeding $1.79 billion. This selling pressure has spread across several major funds as investors reduce crypto exposure.

    Previously, ETF demand absorbed Bitcoin supply during market corrections. With that support fading, the market now depends more on whales, long-term holders, and retail buyers. However, renewed institutional inflows could provide stronger price support, but current flows indicate that demand has not recovered yet.

    Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium remains weak, and apparent demand has stayed negative for 208 consecutive days, recently falling to about negative 273,000 BTC. This suggests that new buying has struggled to absorb available supply.

    Whale Transactions Surge Around $60,000

    Large Bitcoin holders became more active as the price tested levels below $60,000. The network recorded 6,920 transactions worth more than $100,000 and 1,438 transfers above $1 million. This was the second-largest spike in whale activity in two months.

    The increase indicates that some large holders viewed the decline as a possible accumulation window. However, transaction volume does not confirm that every whale transfer involved buying; some movements may include sales, exchange deposits, or wallet transfers.

    Bitcoin later rebounded toward $60,000, but momentum remained weak. The relative strength index (RSI) stayed near oversold levels, while the MACD showed that buyers had not regained control. Therefore, the rebound remains “unconfirmed” without stronger spot demand and better ETF flows.

    Traders are now watching $57,000 as a potential liquidation zone. A break below that level could expose Bitcoin to $54,000, near a key realized price level, testing whether whales will absorb more selling.

    Long-Term Holders Begin Realizing Losses

    Long-term holders are also reacting to the decline. The monthly average for the Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) fell from 1.03 to 0.8, showing that some older investors sold Bitcoin at a loss—indicating losses of about 13% over the past month.

    The yearly average also declined from 2.06 to 1.46, meaning realized profits among long-term holders have narrowed as Bitcoin trades well below its recent high near $82,803.

    Selling by older holders can add pressure in the short term. However, the data suggest that weaker sellers are reducing exposure near current levels, which may reduce future selling but does not confirm an immediate price reversal.

    Outlook: Two Competing Forces

    Bitcoin now faces two competing forces. On one side, ETF redemptions and weak spot demand weigh on the market. On the other, whale activity offers support near $60,000. A sustained recovery still requires stronger buying across ETFs, exchanges, and the wider spot market.