Tag: market analysis

  • Strategy’s Bitcoin Treasury Turns Underwater as BTC Drops Below $75,651 Cost Basis

    Strategy’s Bitcoin Treasury Turns Underwater as BTC Drops Below $75,651 Cost Basis

    Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has entered a critical phase after Bitcoin fell below the company’s average purchase price. The stock has dropped 78% from its cycle peak, while Bitcoin has declined 51%, according to data cited in a report by AxelAdlerJr. At the same time, Strategy has slowed Bitcoin accumulation and increased cash reserves, marking a notable shift in its treasury approach.

    The report said Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury now sits underwater for the first time since the 2022 bear market. The company holds 847,363 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,651, representing a total cost of $64.1 billion. Bitcoin’s move below that level has increased attention on Strategy’s financing model and future buying activity.

    MSTR Falls Faster Than Bitcoin

    Since launching its Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, MSTR has generally acted as a leveraged version of Bitcoin. The stock often outperformed Bitcoin during rallies but suffered larger losses during downturns. After the peak of the 2024-2025 cycle, both Bitcoin and MSTR moved lower, yet MSTR declined much faster than the underlying asset. The stock has now fallen 78% from its peak, compared to Bitcoin’s 51% decline from its cycle high. Although severe, the decline still remains above the 2022 bear market bottom when MSTR recorded an 89% drawdown while Bitcoin fell 77%.

    The report also pointed to March 2020 as a contrasting period. During the pandemic-driven market crash, Bitcoin dropped about 75%, while MSTR lost roughly 58%. At that time, the company had not yet adopted its Bitcoin treasury strategy.

    Cost Basis Becomes a Key Level

    Strategy’s average Bitcoin purchase price of $75,651 is a critical threshold. While an underwater position does not automatically force sales, it can affect corporate behavior and capital allocation. As Bitcoin trades below that level, pressure increases on Strategy’s ability to raise capital through its existing model. The report said a shrinking premium between MSTR shares and the company’s Bitcoin holdings reduces the effectiveness of aggressive stock issuance programs. Maintaining Bitcoin below the treasury cost basis could place additional strain on the company’s funding structure and future accumulation plans.

    Buying Activity Slows as Cash Reserves Grow

    The report described a broader shift in Strategy’s operating approach. Weekly Bitcoin purchases have fallen by roughly two-thirds compared with previous periods. Recent capital raises also show a different allocation pattern. Of the $335.5 million generated through stock sales, less than 11% went toward Bitcoin purchases. The remaining funds went into a dollar reserve. As of June 21, that reserve stood at $1.4 billion. The move is characterized as a transition from aggressive accumulation toward a more defensive posture.

    Meanwhile, Strategy recorded its first net Bitcoin sale since 2022. In late May, the company sold 32 BTC to cover dividend payments linked to STRC. The report also tracked the performance gap between MSTR and Bitcoin. That spread currently stands near 28 percentage points, meaning the stock has fallen substantially more than the asset it tracks. Historical data shows the spread has returned toward the upper end of its long-term range, reflecting continued pressure on the Bitcoin proxy stock.

    What’s Next?

    Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury has moved underwater after BTC fell below the company’s average cost basis of $75,651. Meanwhile, MSTR has dropped 78% from its peak and now trails Bitcoin by a wide margin. At the same time, Strategy has reduced Bitcoin purchases, increased cash reserves, and shifted toward a more defensive treasury approach as investors monitor the key $75,651 level.

  • Dogecoin Trading Volume Surges 116% as Price Holds Near Critical Support Level

    Dogecoin Trading Volume Surges 116% as Price Holds Near Critical Support Level

    Dogecoin has drawn renewed attention after trading activity rose sharply while its price remained near local lows. Major exchanges recorded a more than 116% jump in DOGE volume over the previous day. The coin still trades below key moving averages and remains in a clear downtrend.

    As of June 25, 2026, DOGE is trading near $0.076 (approximately Rs. 7.15 to Rs. 7.50), down nearly 11% over the past seven days. Despite this decline, daily trading volume has stayed high at roughly $900 million to $950 million. Dogecoin’s market capitalization stands near $11.7 billion, keeping it among the largest cryptocurrencies by market cap. However, price action remains weak, and the asset struggles to recover after losing a key support level.

    The sharp volume increase is significant because active markets often signal stronger participation. Traders are watching not just the price but also whether sellers continue to dominate or if buyers begin to absorb supply.

    Key Support and Resistance Levels

    The most important price band now sits between $0.075 and $0.085. Traders view this zone as DOGE’s main support area. The 200-day moving average also sits near $0.0859, adding weight to that level. DOGE has stayed below major moving averages for some time, keeping the broader trend negative. Buyers have not yet forced a sustained recovery, and sellers still control short-term momentum.

    If DOGE loses the support zone, analysts see further downside ahead. The first lower target is near $0.070, and if selling pressure deepens, the next area of interest lies around $0.065.

    Long Positions Still Dominate

    Despite weak price action, long-to-short ratios remain tilted toward bullish bets across major exchanges. OKX shows an even stronger long bias, while Binance traders keep the ratio above 2. This setup creates risk if support breaks, as crowded long positions can fuel liquidations during a sharp move lower. However, the same positioning can also support a strong rebound if the price stabilizes near resistance.

    For now, $0.085 remains the first major hurdle for bulls. A break above that level could improve sentiment and attract more speculative demand. Until then, Dogecoin continues to trade under pressure while volume stays elevated.

    What’s Next?

    Despite the recent decline, trading volume surged more than 116%, showing renewed market participation. With bullish long-to-short ratios still dominant, traders are closely watching whether DOGE stabilizes for a recovery or faces further downside toward lower support levels.