Crypto markets rallied on July 3 as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP climbed ahead of a major options expiry totaling over $2.2 billion. The upward movement followed weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll data, which strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The rally was further fueled by nearly $300 million in short liquidations, improved liquidity signals, and deep unrealized losses among holders that historically precede market recoveries.
Bitcoin Options Signal Bullish Shift
Bitcoin rose more than 6% to approximately $62,000 after a recent market reset, moving above its seven-day moving average. Deribit data showed $1.9 billion in Bitcoin options expiring with a put-to-call ratio of 0.70 and a maximum pain level near $61,000. The market price hovered around $61,626, with traders showing stronger interest in contracts above $61,500 and upcoming calls at $64,000, $66,000, and $70,000. Call trading volume exceeded put volume in the previous 24 hours, producing a bullish 0.75 put-to-call ratio across active Bitcoin options.
Falling implied volatility and a rising 25-delta skew indicated that options markets were shifting from panic toward greater stability. This shift suggests that stronger call demand and improving volatility measures could support a wider recovery as traders move beyond the July 3 expiry.
Ethereum and XRP Recover on Rate-Cut Hopes
Ethereum traded near $1,713 before $230 million in options expired, with a maximum pain price of approximately $1,650. The expiry carried a 1.29 put-to-call ratio, though that figure declined toward one as traders opened September calls around the $2,500 strike. Deribit data assigned Ethereum a 91% probability of finishing above $1,700, reflecting stronger positioning after the recent rebound.
XRP gained about 5% in 24 hours, trading near $1.10 as softer employment data strengthened expectations for a future Federal Reserve rate cut. Approximately $3.7 million in XRP options reached expiry with a 1.06 put-to-call ratio and a maximum pain level near $1.06. Deribit data also indicated a possible $1.14 XRP target by the end of July as the market continued to recover.
Holder Losses and July Seasonality Shape Outlook
Santiment data showed deep unrealized losses across short-term and long-term holder groups, with 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios near minus 45% and minus 47%. The MVRV ratio, which compares market value with realized value, offers insight into how current prices differ from the average token cost basis. Large negative readings have historically appeared after speculative excess declined, leaving a market with fewer short-term participants and more conviction-driven holders.
Bitcoin still traded below its 30-day moving average, while 10x Research identified continued supply pressure from large transfers to the Gemini exchange. The Winklevoss twins transferred about $67 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum to Gemini, a move linked to profit-taking pressure. However, long-term holders increased purchases, helping to form a firmer price floor after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signaling immediate interest rate increases.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research noted that July has historically delivered Bitcoin’s strongest monthly performance, averaging 9.1% gains before flatter trading in August and September.
What’s Next for Crypto Markets?
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP gained ahead of the $2.2 billion options expiry as weaker U.S. jobs data increased rate-cut hopes. Strong call demand, short liquidations, and renewed long-term buying supported the rebound. Traders should now watch key expiry levels and liquidity trends for signs of sustained recovery.
