Tag: on-chain analysis

  • Bitcoin Bull Score Hits 80 as BTC Reclaims Key $83K Moving Average

    Bitcoin Bull Score Hits 80 as BTC Reclaims Key $83K Moving Average

    Bitcoin has climbed back above USD 80,000 with stronger market fundamentals than it showed during a similar price move in May. According to CryptoQuant, its Bull Score Index now stands at 80, a reading the firm describes as “Extra Bullish.”

    Bull Score Index Jumps to 80

    CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said the firm’s Bull Score Index has reached 80, signaling a marked improvement in market conditions. When Bitcoin last traded near the same price in May, the index sat at 50, which corresponds to a “Neutral” reading.

    The Bull Score Index combines multiple market and on-chain signals into a single broader assessment of Bitcoin’s health. The jump from 50 to 80 highlights a clear shift in the underlying fundamentals between the two periods.

    Technical Reclaim and Price Action

    Bitcoin is up 14% over the past week and recently touched a seven-month high near USD 87,000. The rally has pushed the price above major long-term technical levels. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju noted that Bitcoin has reclaimed its 365-day moving average near USD 83,000 and moved above USD 84,000.

    That long-term average is closely watched by market participants as a broad indicator of cycle conditions. Ju described the level as a key dividing line between bearish and bullish phases.

    On-Chain Metrics Reveal Stronger Holder Position

    Ju highlighted the market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio as another encouraging signal. MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which values each coin at the price when it last moved on-chain.

    Importantly, Ju said MVRV never fell below one during the current cycle, even during deep drawdowns. Previous bear-market bottoms saw more severe losses and stronger signs of capitulation among holders.

    Another model, the Profit and Loss (PnL) Index, also paints a healthier picture. That index combines MVRV, net unrealized profit and loss, and other profitability metrics. According to Ju, the PnL Index now shows less extreme cycle tops and bottoms, with bottom formations occurring at progressively higher levels of aggregate holder profitability. The 365-day moving average of the PnL Index has reached what he called a “meaningful inflection” point.

    ETF Inflows and Institutional Activity

    The improved sentiment extends beyond on-chain data. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded USD 998.95 million in inflows on Monday, their strongest single-day total in 11 months. Additionally, Strategy Inc. resumed buying Bitcoin after a pause of nearly a month.

    Regulatory momentum has also contributed to the positive backdrop. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has advanced its efforts to develop a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, which has helped lift overall market sentiment.

    Cycle Expectations Shift as Market Matures

    Despite the bullish signals, CryptoQuant’s Ju warns that Bitcoin’s growing size changes how much fresh capital is needed to drive similar percentage gains. He estimates that the current cycle has seen about USD 697 billion in realized-cap growth accompanying a 689% Bitcoin gain. In contrast, Bitcoin’s early years saw roughly USD 2.7 billion generate gains of over 55,000%.

    Ju now expects the current bull cycle to produce gains of about three to five times rather than another move above ten times. He also anticipates that any subsequent bear market will be milder than previous downturns, citing Bitcoin’s larger valuation and increased institutional ownership, which reduce the price impact of each new dollar entering the market.

    Looking Ahead

    Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has risen to 80 as the asset reclaims its 365-day moving average near USD 83,000. Strong ETF inflows, positive MVRV readings, and higher holder profitability all distinguish the current setup from May. Yet the central question remains whether improving on-chain conditions can sustain the rally as Bitcoin’s larger valuation demands ever-greater capital inflows.

  • Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking as On-Chain Metrics Hint at Market Bottom

    Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking as On-Chain Metrics Hint at Market Bottom

    Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) have started to sell after months of continued accumulation, signaling a potential new phase in the market. Despite profit-taking by seasoned investors—which is likely to create short-term selling pressure—several on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin could be entering conditions more commonly seen near market bottoms.

    On-chain data reveals that LTH supply recently began declining after climbing close to 16 million BTC, while the supply of LTHs in short-term holding periods remains comparatively low. Historically, after extended price rallies, long-term investors have sold part of their holdings, allowing new investors to enter the market.

    On-Chain Indicators Suggest Accumulation

    The LTH/STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has moved closer to 1, indicating that the profits of long-term and short-term holders are converging. Historically, this pattern occurred in 2015, 2019, and 2022, with selling pressure easing slowly over time and accumulation resuming. While the ratio has not yet entered its traditional accumulation zone, current readings suggest the market is heading further toward that zone.

    This cycle also differs from previous ones. Bitcoin’s first major price increase in the current cycle took approximately 31 months to achieve—much longer than the 8 to 17 months seen in past cycles. This extended timeline suggests that investor behavior has evolved alongside the rising institutionalization of the market.

    Also Read: Bitcoin Security Faces New Questions After the Coldcard Wallet Hack

    Fear Persists Despite Improving Fundamentals

    LTH supply recently started declining after climbing close to 16 million BTC. Currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 40, indicating neutral market sentiment. Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has been squeezed to the 1.21–1.22 zone. Historically, when sentiment turned negative while on-chain fundamentals improved, new accumulation phases have begun. Meanwhile, long-term investor supply remains near record levels, suggesting that established investors are holding onto most of their Bitcoin after recent distributions.

    Although no single indicator can accurately identify a market bottom, the combination of record long-term holder conviction, compressed valuations, subdued speculative activity, and cautious investor sentiment increasingly resembles conditions seen before previous Bitcoin recoveries.

    In the short term, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase to what could become an accumulation phase. Whether this marks the cycle bottom will depend on overall macroeconomic conditions, investor demand, and the market’s ability to absorb continued selling pressure from long-term investors.

  • Crypto Market Recovery: Signs of Hope as Bitcoin Nears $65,000

    Crypto Market Recovery: Signs of Hope as Bitcoin Nears $65,000

    The cryptocurrency market is showing early signs of a recovery, with Bitcoin climbing back to around $65,000. While not yet at previous highs, this level has boosted investor confidence. Analysts point to several key factors that will shape the next phase of the market: interest rate decisions, institutional investment, regulatory clarity, and on-chain activity.

    Key Takeaways

    • Bitcoin has recovered to approximately $65,000, signaling improved market sentiment.
    • Interest rate policies and institutional capital flows remain the strongest drivers of recovery.
    • A full market rebound will likely depend on a combination of economic and regulatory developments.

    After a prolonged period of volatility, the crypto market has entered a new phase. Bitcoin’s move to $65,000 has lifted sentiment across the board, though Ethereum still trades below its earlier peaks. Analysts are watching the $1,800 to $2,000 range for Ethereum as a critical level for further upside.

    Despite the progress, the market has not returned to its 2025 highs. Investors are monitoring several major events that could determine the direction of digital assets in the coming months. Recent price action has created fresh optimism, but experts warn that short-term volatility is likely to persist. Large investors remain active, while many retail traders wait for stronger economic signals before committing more capital.

    Global Economy Holds the Key

    The most significant factor influencing crypto’s recovery is the broader global economy. Central bank actions, inflation data, and money supply figures are far more impactful than social media trends. High interest rates tend to push investors toward safer assets, reducing appetite for cryptocurrencies. Many analysts believe that lower interest rates and slowing inflation could support crypto prices, as increased liquidity encourages investment in riskier assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

    Institutional Investors Continue to Build Positions

    Large financial institutions remain a cornerstone of the crypto market. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have opened the door for pension funds, asset managers, and other professional investors to gain exposure through familiar products. Even after periods of selling, institutional interest has stayed stronger than in previous cycles. Many companies are also advancing blockchain technology and tokenized financial assets, indicating that long-term interest has not waned. Analysts suggest that steady institutional participation could create a more solid foundation for future growth than retail buying alone.

    Regulations Could Improve Market Confidence

    Clear regulations are another essential piece of the recovery puzzle. Countries around the world are working on frameworks that define how crypto companies operate and how digital assets fit into existing financial systems. Better rules reduce uncertainty and help large investors enter the market with greater confidence. Regulatory progress also enables exchanges, payment firms, and financial companies to develop new products without constant legal ambiguity. A stable legal environment fosters trust across the industry, supporting long-term growth rather than short-lived excitement.

    On-Chain Activity Shows Healthy Trends

    Blockchain data has begun to reveal positive signals. Wallet accumulation has increased in recent months, and stablecoin activity remains robust on major networks. Analysts also track exchange reserves, network usage, and transaction volumes for insights beyond price charts. Lower exchange reserves often indicate that investors are moving assets to private wallets rather than preparing for sales. Healthy blockchain activity points to steady engagement from users and developers. While these signals alone cannot guarantee a full recovery, they support the view that market conditions have improved compared with earlier corrections.

    Recent News Supports a Positive Outlook

    Experts note that Bitcoin’s return to $65,000 reinforces its technical significance and has boosted confidence after months of uncertainty. Investors are now watching the Federal Reserve’s actions, as interest rate decisions can affect liquidity and risk appetite. Studies from financial firms show that institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong despite volatility. Analysts believe consistent institutional investment could contribute to a more stable market over time.

    Recovery Will Likely Take Time

    Market analysts caution that the journey back to prior highs will not be smooth. Fluctuations are expected for several months as traders react to economic data, inflation reports, and central bank communications. Upward movements will likely be punctuated by pullbacks. Many predictions suggest that improved economic conditions will accelerate recovery in the second half of 2026, with long-term adoption continuing through 2027 as more institutions and industries embrace blockchain technology.

    Why This Matters

    The crypto market affects millions of investors, financial firms, and businesses worldwide. A strong recovery can boost confidence, increase investment, and support broader adoption of digital assets. Market trends also reflect global economic conditions, making crypto recovery an important topic for anyone following finance, technology, or investment opportunities.

    Final Outlook

    The crypto market has shown early recovery signs, though the journey is not over. Bitcoin’s return to $65,000, ongoing institutional interest, stronger blockchain activity, and gradual regulatory progress have improved sentiment. Future interest rate decisions, inflation trends, ETF flows, and global economic conditions will shape the next chapter for digital assets. No single event will determine the recovery; instead, several factors must align before cryptocurrencies return to sustained growth. Current data indicates a stronger foundation, and the coming months will reveal whether this recovery evolves into the next major bull market.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Has the crypto market already recovered?

    The market has shown positive signs, but analysts consider the recovery incomplete.

    Why are interest rates important for crypto?

    Lower interest rates often increase market liquidity and encourage investment in higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

    Why do institutional investors matter?

    Large financial firms bring significant capital and long-term confidence to the crypto market.

    What role do regulations play in crypto recovery?

    Clear regulations can improve investor confidence and support wider adoption of digital assets.

    Will Bitcoin lead the next crypto recovery?

    Bitcoin typically sets the overall market direction, and its recent move near $65,000 has improved sentiment across the sector.

  • Shiba Inu Exchange Reserves Plunge by 1.4 Trillion SHIB: Implications for Price

    Shiba Inu Exchange Reserves Plunge by 1.4 Trillion SHIB: Implications for Price

    Shiba Inu’s exchange reserves have dropped by 1.4 trillion SHIB over the past ten days, reducing the supply available on centralized exchanges to approximately 86.48 trillion SHIB. This on-chain signal suggests investors are moving tokens to private wallets, decreasing immediate selling pressure.

    Why Exchange Reserves Matter

    Lower exchange reserves often indicate fewer coins ready for quick sale, which can reduce selling pressure and improve market balance. However, a price rally typically requires broader market support, including strong demand and favorable conditions.

    SHIB Price Remains Under Pressure

    As of the latest update, SHIB trades at $0.00000425, below key resistance levels and its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory, buying activity needs to strengthen for sustained upward momentum.

    Whale Accumulation Continues

    Large holders, or whales, are moving significant SHIB amounts away from exchanges, indicating long-term confidence. This reduces available supply and helps SHIB avoid deeper declines despite a weak overall crypto market.

    Historical Context

    Similar reserve declines earlier this year led to price stabilization and modest gains. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, falling exchange reserves often support price stability.

    Broader Market Influence

    SHIB’s price remains tied to Bitcoin and overall market sentiment. Favorable Bitcoin movements can boost altcoins, but SHIB needs both internal momentum and positive market conditions for a recovery.

    Ecosystem Development

    The Shiba Inu project continues expanding with updates to Shibarium, AI initiatives, and community growth, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term price action.

    Conclusion

    The 1.4 trillion SHIB reserve drop reduces selling pressure and, combined with whale accumulation and ecosystem developments, strengthens SHIB’s foundation. However, higher trading volume and buying interest are essential for a sustained price rally. For now, lower reserves signal investor preference to hold, improving the long-term outlook.

  • Bitcoin Nears $69K Resistance as $107K Buyers Show Early Bear-Market Bottom Signals

    Bitcoin Nears $69K Resistance as $107K Buyers Show Early Bear-Market Bottom Signals

    Bitcoin buyers who entered near $107,000 are showing lower realized losses, a pattern that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode links to early bear-market bottom signals. Bitcoin is now eyeing $69,000 as a key resistance level while trading near $64,000 amid weak liquidity and macroeconomic pressure.

    Realized Losses Begin to Cool

    Glassnode analyst Cryptovizart focused on Bitcoin held for one to two years. Many in this group bought between July 2024 and July 2025, when Bitcoin rose from about $62,800 to $107,000. The later decline left the cohort holding losses.

    As prices stayed below entry levels, these holders sold coins at a loss. Cryptovizart said bear markets have struggled to form stable bottoms until this group reduces selling. The cohort’s 30-day average realized loss passed $75 million before turning lower.

    Cryptovizart described the reversal as an early signal, not confirmation. “When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over,” the analyst wrote, the heaviest distribution phase has often passed. The setup was ‘worth watching closely.’

    Bitcoin Faces a $69,000 Cost Basis Test

    Glassnode placed the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000. This level sits close to Bitcoin’s 2021 record high and may act as a resistance area. Buyers who entered near that price could sell at break-even.

    Glassnode said the first test would ‘likely draw a strong reaction.’ A move above $69,000 could allow the recovery to extend. A rejection could keep Bitcoin inside its range. This reflects uncertainty, as the market has not tested the level during this rebound.

    Two-month stochastic RSI readings show conditions linked to earlier reversals. However, that indicator does not confirm a bottom alone. Bitcoin trades below $69,000 and near the lower end of its recent range.

    Macro Pressure Keeps Bitcoin Near $64,000

    Bitcoin fell 1.05% over 24 hours to $64,102.24, while the crypto market value dropped 0.87%. The decline followed risk-off trading linked to US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and inflation concerns. Bitcoin showed a 57% correlation with gold.

    Spot volume fell about 6.29% to $27.16 billion, showing limited conviction. Bitcoin also slipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $64,480. Its 14-day RSI stood at 37.19, indicating weak momentum without a confirmed bullish divergence.

    Traders are watching $63,800 as support. A daily close below that level could expose $63,000. Meanwhile, a volume-backed return above $64,480 could support stabilization. Upcoming US PCE data may shape Federal Reserve expectations and demand.

    Dormant Whale Moves 5,908 BTC

    A wallet inactive for eight years transferred 5,908 BTC worth about $383 million to a new address. The holder received the coins near the 2017 market peak, when Bitcoin traded around $16,000. The position cost about $100 million and now carries an estimated gain of 284%.

    The transfer did not go to a known exchange wallet, so available data does not show a direct sale. The coins moved from an older address format to a newer bc1q address. Such transfers can involve custody changes, key rotation, estate planning or preparations for an over-the-counter deal.

    Unlike recent long-term holders selling at losses, this wallet holds a large profit and has not sold through an exchange. The move adds another large on-chain transaction as Bitcoin buyers, older holders, and short-term traders react to prices near $64,000.

  • Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Early Bottom Signals Emerge: What Traders Should Watch

    Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Early Bottom Signals Emerge: What Traders Should Watch

    Bitcoin has reached a critical price zone as on-chain data reveals early signs of a market bottom, while long-term chart levels continue to expose the cryptocurrency to further losses. Selling pressure appears to be easing after heavy market declines, but analysts caution that Bitcoin must hold nearby support before any sustained recovery can develop.

    The next several weeks will be pivotal in determining whether buyers can establish a stable base or if sellers will drive prices toward lower levels.

    On-Chain Model Enters Bottoming Zone

    On-chain analyst MorenoDV notes that Bitcoin has produced one of its first signals of a deeper market cleanup, though the data does not confirm a final bottom. The analyst uses the Bitcoin UTXO Block Profit and Loss Count Ratio Model, which compares profitable UTXO blocks with those holding unrealized losses.

    A high ratio indicates many holders still have profits available, creating room for further selling as investors reduce exposure or lock in gains. Conversely, a lower reading suggests more holders have moved into losses after the market has already absorbed heavy selling pressure.

    The latest ratio has entered a zone associated with earlier bottoming periods, but MorenoDV says the 365-day moving average still needs to decline further. Until that longer-term measure drops, the current signal may reflect a temporary oversold phase rather than a complete market reset.

    Bitcoin Range Keeps $67,000 in View

    Crypto trader Honey observes that Bitcoin has already moved below the June low near $59,000, leaving the June high around $67,000 as the next major range level. The trader expects the strongest range-bound outcome to involve a rise over the next four to six weeks before Bitcoin approaches the June high.

    That path would carry the price from one side of the current range to the other before any larger decline develops during the fourth quarter. This outlook does not signal the start of a new bull market, as Bitcoin would remain inside an established range while traders await clearer direction.

    Short-covering could also trigger brief rallies if bearish traders close positions, although MorenoDV says those moves would not prove a lasting recovery. The key question is whether buyers can sustain enough demand to push Bitcoin toward $67,000 while the broader market still tests long-term support.

    200-Week Average Shifts Focus Lower

    Chart analyst Nic Puckrin notes that Bitcoin closed below its 200-week simple moving average for the first time in more than three years. The break also marked the first move below that average during the current market cycle, increasing attention on lower support levels.

    In earlier bear markets, the 200-week average served as a major reference point for traders tracking long-term market weakness. Puckrin identifies the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $57,900 as the next support level if Bitcoin remains below the long-term average.

    If sellers break that zone, traders may turn toward the on-chain realized price near $53,200 as the next major level. For now, on-chain conditions suggest slower selling, while chart signals show that Bitcoin still faces pressure around several important support areas.

    What’s Next?

    Bitcoin shows early bottoming signals as selling pressure begins to ease, but the market still faces major risks below the 200-week moving average. Support at $57,900 and $53,200 remains critical, while $67,000 marks the next recovery target. Traders should watch these levels before confirming a stronger rebound.