Tag: PCE Inflation

  • Bitcoin Faces Pivotal $84K Test as PCE, Jobs, and ISM Data Loom

    Bitcoin Faces Pivotal $84K Test as PCE, Jobs, and ISM Data Loom

    Bitcoin Holds Above $82.5K Support Entering Data-Heavy Week

    Bitcoin entered a critical U.S. data week near $84,000 after dipping to $82,563 on September 28. A string of inflation, manufacturing, and labor market reports could reshape expectations for interest rates and risk assets.

    Rising Treasury yields, oil prices above $90 a barrel, and volatile bond markets are adding pressure. The week begins with August personal income and outlays on September 30, followed by the ISM manufacturing report on October 1 and the September employment report on October 2.

    Glassnode Levels Provide Key Reference Points

    Glassnode analysts have highlighted the $84,000 to $85,000 range as a dense cluster of long-term holder acquisition prices. Bitcoin briefly slipped below that zone during Monday’s drop, making a close back above it a constructive signal.

    Additional market levels include the True Market Mean near $77,000 and the mean MVRV reference around $96,700. Glassnode’s September 21 Market Pulse also noted net spot taker buying, rising trading volume, and elevated futures leverage, while weekly ETF flows remained negative.

    The quality of any bounce matters. Fresh spot demand, stronger volume, and renewed ETF buying would offer more durable support than a short-term futures-driven recovery.

    Will September Break Its Historical Pattern?

    Bitcoin has gained about 7% in September after rallying 25% in August. Historically, every positive August since 2013 has been followed by a negative September. With two days left in the month, a positive September would break that sequence and mark a third consecutive monthly gain.

    Oil and Supply Chain Risks Could Influence the Inflation Outlook

    Energy markets remain a wildcard. The Energy Information Administration estimated Brent spot crude averaged $91 a barrel in August, up $7 from July. The International Energy Agency also pointed to severe restrictions on Gulf diesel and gasoil exports during August, while shipping incidents near Hormuz were reported on September 21 and 23.

    Because the August PCE report lands on September 30, it will not fully reflect late-September changes in fuel, freight, or factory costs. The ISM manufacturing report on October 1 may therefore offer a timelier inflation signal. ISM’s August Prices Index stood at 71.1, while Supplier Deliveries reached 59.3. A higher September Prices Index, slower deliveries, or stronger cost comments would point to renewed pressure on manufacturers.

    Jobs Data and Fed Rate Expectations Take Center Stage

    Labor market data begins with the August JOLTS report on September 29, followed by September payrolls on October 2. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, citing elevated inflation and steady job gains.

    A moderate cooling in labor conditions could reduce pressure on the Fed. However, a sharply weaker employment report might shift attention from inflation toward growth risks.

    Bond Volatility and Q4 Liquidity Concerns

    The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5.2%, and the MOVE index has moved above 100, near its year-to-date highs. Oil above $90 adds another inflation worry, while gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.

    Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s quarter remains strong. A positive September would put Q3 2026 more than 40% higher and mark the first positive third quarter since Q3 2025. Historical CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin’s average fourth-quarter gain is around 77%, but Q4 could bring fresh tests for liquidity and risk appetite.

    Anthropic’s reported November IPO plans and the U.S. midterm elections could add further volatility. The clearest cross-market test may come from a soft August PCE reading followed by a higher September ISM prices reading. That sequence could initially ease Treasury yields before renewed cost concerns push rate expectations higher.

    This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

  • Bitcoin Holds Near $85K as ETF Inflows Meet Falling Miner Reserves

    Bitcoin Holds Near $85K as ETF Inflows Meet Falling Miner Reserves

    Bitcoin Trades in a Tight Range

    Bitcoin changed hands at $84,779.26, up 0.88% over 24 hours and roughly in line with the wider crypto market’s 1.03% advance. The largest cryptocurrency has mostly moved between $83,000 and $85,000 since pulling back from a September high near $87,374.

    On the upside, resistance sits between $85,500 and $86,000. A clean break above that zone could put the earlier high back in play. If Bitcoin loses $83,000, traders may look toward $80,000 to $81,000 as the next support area.

    Spot Bitcoin ETF Demand Returns

    U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted about $2.4 billion during the five trading days ending September 25, according to SoSoValue. That was their strongest weekly inflow of 2026 and marked a shift back to net buying after a period of outflows.

    Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 reached 95%, underscoring how closely the two markets have traded. Interest rate expectations remain a key link between them. Bitcoin also held above its main daily moving averages, and its MACD reading stayed positive, though neither indicator can quantify how much of the rally came from ETF demand.

    Miner Reserves Decline as Hashrate Eases

    Miner reserves fell by 1,530 BTC in the week ending September 26 to about 1.193 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant. The metric tracks coins held in wallets linked to miners and mining pools. Coins leaving those wallets may be sold, moved to custody or used for other purposes, so the decline alone does not confirm how much miners sold.

    Bitcoin’s seven-day average hashrate dropped to roughly 915.8 exahashes per second on September 26, its lowest level in about three weeks. Hashrate estimates can shift because of block timing, power conditions and changes in active mining equipment. The network continued producing blocks during the decline.

    Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple rose by 0.24 during the week to 1.13. CryptoQuant defines the measure as daily mining revenue divided by its 365-day average. A reading above one means revenue from newly issued Bitcoin is above that average. The metric does not account for miners’ electricity, equipment or financing costs.

    Derivatives Activity Cools

    Bitcoin derivatives activity eased during the price pause. Open interest fell 6.5%, while 24-hour Bitcoin liquidations dropped 88% to $7.45 million. The figures suggest fewer outstanding leveraged positions and fewer forced closures.

    What Traders Are Watching Next

    Market participants are focused on whether Bitcoin can clear $86,000. The next major macro catalyst is the U.S. inflation data due September 30. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has scheduled its August personal income and outlays report for that day, which will include the personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge closely watched for its impact on interest rate expectations.

    Some traders refer to October as Uptober because Bitcoin has often gained during the month. Past returns, however, offer no assurance that the pattern will repeat. Bitcoin’s next move will depend on the incoming data and whether the price holds its nearby support levels.

  • Bitcoin Holds Near $85,000 as ETF Demand Offsets Miner Reserve Decline

    Bitcoin Holds Near $85,000 as ETF Demand Offsets Miner Reserve Decline

    Bitcoin was trading around $84,800 on Sept. 27, 2026, holding close to the $85,000 mark after a week of heavy buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The largest cryptocurrency gained 0.88% over 24 hours, slightly trailing a 1.03% advance across the broader crypto market.

    The price action leaves traders focused on two near-term signals: whether BTC can clear resistance at $86,000 and how the market reacts to the Sept. 30 U.S. inflation report.

    ETF inflows provide support

    U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.4 billion during the five trading days ended Sept. 25, according to SoSoValue. That was the strongest weekly inflow of 2026 and marked a shift back to net buying after a period of outflows.

    Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 reached 95%, underscoring how closely the asset has tracked broader risk sentiment and interest-rate expectations. BTC also remained above its key daily moving averages, and its MACD stayed positive. Those technical signals, however, do not show how much of the move was driven specifically by ETF demand.

    Miner reserves and hashrate decline

    Miner reserves fell by 1,530 BTC in the week to about 1.193 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant, which tracks wallets tied to miners and mining pools. A decline in reserves does not by itself confirm sales; coins may be sold, moved into custody, or redirected for other uses.

    The network’s seven-day average hashrate dropped to roughly 915.8 exahashes per second on Sept. 26, a three-week low. Hashrate estimates can fluctuate because of block timing, power availability, and changes in active mining equipment. Mining continued during the decline.

    Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple rose by 0.24 during the week to 1.13. The metric compares daily mining revenue with its 365-day average; a reading above 1 indicates that revenue from newly issued BTC is above that average. It does not account for miners’ electricity, hardware, or financing costs.

    Key price levels to watch

    Since retreating from a September high near $87,374, Bitcoin has mostly traded between $83,000 and $85,000. Resistance is clustered between $85,500 and $86,000. A break above that zone could put the earlier high back in play. If BTC falls below $83,000, traders may watch the $80,000–$81,000 area for support.

    Derivatives activity has cooled during the pause. Open interest dropped 6.5%, and 24-hour Bitcoin liquidations fell 88% to $7.45 million, pointing to fewer leveraged positions and fewer forced closures.

    Inflation data looms

    The next U.S. inflation reading is scheduled for Sept. 30, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its August personal income and outlays report. The data will include the personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge closely watched for its impact on interest-rate expectations.

    Some traders refer to October as "Uptober" because Bitcoin has often gained during the month, but past performance does not guarantee a repeat. Near term, BTC’s response will depend on the inflation data and whether the price can hold its nearby support levels.