Meta is pursuing a dual-track strategy to enter the prediction market space, simultaneously testing its own internal product, Arena, while exploring potential partnerships with established platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly instructed senior executives to engage in discussions with both operators, according to a New York Times report cited by The Block.
The exploratory talks come just days after news broke that Zuckerberg had directed a small team to build Arena, a standalone prediction-market app separate from Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Insiders describe Arena as experimental yet a top company priority, suggesting Meta may choose to either launch its own platform, strike distribution deals, or pursue both options simultaneously.
Meta’s Dual Strategy: Build and Partner
Meta’s interest in prediction markets is not new. The company previously operated Forecast from 2020 to 2022, a points-based platform that allowed crowdsourced predictions but was shut down due to low usage and high manual question-selection costs. Arena represents Meta’s second known consumer prediction product and would likely use a similar points model, differentiating it from the real-money services offered by Polymarket and Kalshi.
Even without cash trading, Arena could drive engagement, advertising opportunities, and valuable user-interest data. However, challenges remain regarding misinformation, market manipulation, sensitive event categories, and protections for younger users. Meta has not yet detailed how Arena would generate revenue.
Prediction Market Landscape Grows
If Meta secures a partnership, it would follow X (formerly Twitter), which chose Polymarket as its official prediction-market partner in June 2025. That integration placed live market probabilities and Grok-powered annotations directly in posts. A similar deal could put prediction markets across Meta’s massive social-media network, which reported 3.56 billion daily users in the first quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded rapidly. Their combined event-contract trading volume exceeded $60 billion in 2026. Institutional market makers like Wintermute have provided liquidity. Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May and reportedly seeks a $40 billion valuation. Both platforms operate under CFTC regulation: Kalshi has been a designated contract market since 2020, and Polymarket’s U.S. business also uses a CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
What’s Next?
Meta has not announced any agreements or a public launch for Arena. The talks remain exploratory, and neither Polymarket nor Kalshi has commented publicly. Market participants should watch for official details on Arena’s structure, distribution model, and regulatory compliance. The company’s renewed interest comes after a quarterly decline in daily users across its Family of Apps, which Meta attributed to internet disruptions in Iran and WhatsApp restrictions in Russia.
Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts tied to future events, with prices reflecting market-implied probabilities across politics, monetary policy, sports, entertainment, and financial developments. As Meta explores both internal development and external partnerships, the prediction market industry’s growth trajectory appears set to intersect with mainstream social media.