Tesla stock enters a key earnings week with options traders preparing for a sharp move. The company will release its second-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 22, followed by an earnings call at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Recent options pricing points to a potential swing of about 7% in either direction by Friday. Based on Thursday’s close, that range could take TSLA stock near $365 or above $416. Shares closed Friday at $380.84, down 2.6%.
The expected move reflects that traders see room for a strong reaction to the Q2 report, though options pricing does not predict direction. Tesla shares have fallen more than 10% since the start of 2026, and a 7% rise would recover part of those losses, while a similar decline would push the stock further below analyst targets.
Wall Street remains divided on Tesla’s valuation. Among 11 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, six rate the stock neutral, four rate it a buy, and one recommends selling. Price targets range from $130 to $600, with a $408 average. Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target to $417 from $415, maintaining an equal-weight rating and expecting a solid quarter. The firm noted that the key investor debate remains whether Robotaxi and Optimus progress can justify an accelerating AI investment cycle.
For the second quarter, Tesla’s company-compiled consensus calls for revenue of $27.58 billion, up from $22.50 billion a year ago. Analysts expect non-GAAP earnings of $0.55 per share and GAAP earnings of $0.36. Automotive revenue is projected at $20.05 billion, energy storage at $3.77 billion, and services at $3.76 billion. Wall Street anticipates a 19.5% gross margin but also forecasts negative free cash flow of about $3.25 billion and capital spending near $6.70 billion.
Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles during the quarter and produced 451,758, with Model 3 and Model Y deliveries reaching 467,762. The company also deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products.
Investors are expected to look beyond vehicle sales during the call, as Tesla shifts resources toward autonomous driving, Robotaxi services, the Optimus humanoid robot, energy storage, and other AI-linked projects. Progress on Robotaxi and Optimus could shape the stock reaction, with analysts seeking clearer timelines, spending plans, and commercial targets. The Tesla Semi program may also draw questions, especially after Tesla opened a public Megacharger station in Bloomington, California, and encouraged fleet customers to install chargers at their depots.
Investors have submitted questions about Semi production, sales estimates, and revenue. While Tesla does not answer every submitted question, the Q2 call will provide the next scheduled update on financial results and the company’s broader growth plans.