U.S. stocks moved higher on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected June employment report eased concerns that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in the near term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new record intraday high above 52,800, while the S&P 500 also advanced. Investors shifted focus to labor market data that pointed to slower hiring while unemployment remained relatively stable.
The report pushed Treasury yields lower and lifted expectations that the Fed may leave rates unchanged at its next policy meeting. Gains in materials and consumer staples helped offset continued weakness in semiconductor stocks, allowing major indexes to climb.
June Payrolls Miss Forecasts as Unemployment Holds Steady
The U.S. economy added 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, well below economists’ expectations of around 110,000 to 115,000. Despite slower hiring, the unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, slightly better than the forecasted 4.3%. The softer data interrupted several months of stronger hiring and was seen as a sign that the labor market is cooling without broad weakness, reducing the need for the Fed to tighten monetary policy further.
Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, described the report as “the best number we could hope for,” noting that the job market remains fine but not hot enough to accelerate inflation. Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro, added that while the report doesn’t signal labor-market trouble, it does cool the hawkish narrative.
Markets Trim Expectations for Another Fed Rate Hike
Following the employment data, traders lowered odds of a near-term Fed rate increase. The two-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks policy expectations, fell. Market pricing shifted toward a greater probability that policymakers would keep rates unchanged later this month.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had noted on Wednesday that inflation risks had eased, reaffirming the central bank’s 2% target. The latest jobs figures shifted attention to the labor side of the Fed’s dual mandate. Bradford Smith, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, said the print “takes some of the pressure off” the Fed to hike near term, especially with moderating oil prices and softer hiring.
Dow Reaches Another Record While Chip Stocks Lag
The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a fresh intraday record above 52,800, and the S&P 500 traded higher. However, the Nasdaq underperformed as semiconductor shares extended recent losses. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF declined, with Teradyne, KLA, Nvidia, and Micron trading lower.
Despite chipmaker weakness, market participation broadened. Materials and consumer staples led S&P 500 sector gains, and advancing stocks outnumbered decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Ielpo noted that investors are finding value outside AI and technology, favoring a broader market approach.
Investors Monitor Inflation Risks and Broader Trends
Although the jobs report eased immediate rate-hike fears, investors continue watching inflation and geopolitical developments, particularly oil price volatility tied to tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks showed little progress, but oil prices moved lower on hopes that tensions would remain contained.
Active fund managers posted stronger June performance as market breadth improved. According to Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis, about 70% of active managers beat their benchmarks, with nearly 88% of small-cap managers outperforming as leadership expanded beyond high-growth stocks. Investors also monitored AI-related shares after recent volatility, with analysts noting that improving breadth has allowed gains to spread across sectors.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.