SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $135.27 on Wednesday, barely above its $135 initial public offering price after touching an intraday low of $132.28. This marks the first time the stock has closed below its IPO price since its Nasdaq debut on June 12.
Investors are now bracing for a series of scheduled share unlocks and the company’s inaugural quarterly earnings report, both of which are expected to significantly influence trading activity in the weeks ahead. Currently, only about 5% of SpaceX shares are available for public trading, with the vast majority of insider holdings still under lockup restrictions.
Limited Share Supply Faces Major Change
SpaceX entered public markets with nearly 95% of its shares locked, leaving a thin float that supported an early rally and pushed the company’s valuation beyond $2.6 trillion shortly after its debut.
That structure is about to shift. SpaceX plans to release additional 7% tranches during August and September, followed by a larger release after the third-quarter earnings report later this year.
Elon Musk’s holdings, however, are subject to separate restrictions. His 6.4 billion shares remain locked until June 2027, exempting his stake from the early-release schedule.
Earnings Report Will Trigger the First Unlock
Analysts expect SpaceX to publish its first quarterly earnings during the first week of August. That reporting period will activate the first major lockup expiration, allowing insiders to sell roughly 20% of previously restricted shares. An additional 10% becomes eligible if the stock meets a performance requirement: closing at least 30% above the $135 IPO price, or $175.50, during five of the ten trading days before the earnings release. Currently, SPCX trades well below that threshold, so the extra early release has not yet qualified.
More Shares Will Enter the Market Through December
SpaceX’s IPO filings outline additional unlock dates after the first earnings release. The company will release another 7% of locked shares after 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the IPO. After third-quarter earnings, another 28% of pre-IPO shares will become eligible for sale.
The standard 180-day lockup expires on December 8. Some investors follow extended schedules that continue into 2027. Elon Musk controls about 40% of the company’s equity and roughly 85% of its voting power, and his holdings remain locked until mid-June 2027.
The stock has failed to regain momentum after joining the Nasdaq-100, and shares remain well below earlier highs. Even so, some technical analysts continue to watch for a possible move toward $158.
What’s Next?
SpaceX stock closed below its IPO price for the first time since listing, as upcoming earnings and scheduled share unlocks move into focus. Several lockup expirations will increase the available share float, while Elon Musk’s holdings remain locked until 2027. Investors will closely monitor the next earnings report for further market direction.