Morgan Stanley has issued a $300 price target for SpaceX stock, marking one of Wall Street’s highest valuations for the newly public company. Analyst Adam Jonas initiated coverage with an ‘Overweight’ rating, describing $300 as the firm’s base case. As of July 20, SpaceX shares traded at $123.99, below the $135 IPO price set on June 12.
The target implies approximately 142% upside from the current market price. However, Morgan Stanley employed an ‘intentionally wide’ valuation range, with a bear case of $75 and a bull case of $600. This wide spread reflects the numerous projects that must meet growth and cost targets over many years.
AI Growth Drives Morgan Stanley’s Optimism
Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue will surge from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion by 2030—growth of about 17 times within five years. The bank forecasts revenue could reach $3.3 trillion by 2040, with AI services contributing a significant share.
The forecast extends beyond rocket launches and Starlink internet services. Morgan Stanley’s model includes terrestrial data centers, enterprise AI services, satellite connectivity, and orbital computing. SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI in February integrated the Grok developer and its computing assets into the wider company.
In its IPO filing, SpaceX presented a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with approximately $26.5 trillion coming from AI-related markets and the remaining $2 trillion from space and connectivity. These figures represent the full market SpaceX could serve, not company revenue forecasts.
Orbital Data Centers Underpin Long-Term Case
SpaceX plans to leverage Starship and large satellite networks to support computing infrastructure in orbit. The company has discussed placing AI data centers above Earth, where satellites could use solar power and avoid land, power, and cooling constraints faced by ground facilities.
However, this plan depends on Starship achieving regular and lower-cost operations. SpaceX postponed its 13th Starship test on July 16 after an engine issue triggered an automatic abort, causing shares to extend their decline and close below the IPO price for a second session.
Starship also supports future Starlink launches. Larger satellites and higher launch capacity could expand broadband coverage and carry more computing equipment. Morgan Stanley treats launch reliability, satellite deployment, and AI demand as interconnected components of the $300 valuation.
Valuation and Supply Risks Loom
SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion net loss on $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025. The stock climbed as high as $225.64 after the IPO before losing more than 40% from that peak. The current market price values the company near $1.63 trillion.
The stock faces potential selling pressure from share lockup expirations after the company reports second-quarter results. Reports indicate approximately 1.37 billion shares could become eligible for sale. While eligible shares do not always enter the market, a larger tradable supply can add volatility.
Morgan Stanley’s $300 target rests on long-range estimates rather than current earnings. The $75 to $600 range illustrates how the valuation changes under different launch, AI, and cash-flow assumptions. SpaceX’s earnings reports, Starship tests, and AI contracts will provide fresh data for these forecasts. The stock remains sensitive to launch updates.