Tag: US jobs data

  • Fed Rate Hike Fears Trigger Sell-Off in Indian IT Stocks: TCS, Infosys, HCLTech Under Pressure

    Fed Rate Hike Fears Trigger Sell-Off in Indian IT Stocks: TCS, Infosys, HCLTech Under Pressure

    Indian IT stocks experienced a sharp decline on September 7 as stronger-than-expected US jobs data reignited concerns about further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The Nifty IT index dropped 2.28% to close at 29,995.20, falling 699.90 points from its previous close of 30,695.10. The index hit a high of 30,377.10 and a low of 29,847.25 during the session, now sitting about 25.6% below its 52-week high of 40,301.40.

    Top IT Stocks Take a Hit

    Among the major players, Infosys suffered the steepest decline, losing 3.76% to close at Rs. 1,087.50. TCS fell 1.48% to Rs. 2,270, while HCLTech slipped 0.82% to Rs. 1,282.80. The broader IT sector also faced pressure, with Tech Mahindra, Wipro, LTIMindtree, Mphasis, and other key names declining.

    Strong US Jobs Data Revives Rate-Hike Fears

    The trigger was the US jobs report for August, which showed the economy added 162,000 jobs—far exceeding the market expectation of around 56,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The robust data bolstered the view that the US economy remains strong enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher rates or even raise them again.

    Markets now price a 58% chance of a rate hike at the September 16 Fed meeting, with the probability for an October move reaching about 70%, according to data from Reuters and Moneycontrol. The next major test will be the US August inflation report, due on Friday.

    How Higher US Rates Impact Indian IT Firms

    The US is the largest market for Indian IT companies. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for American corporations, making them more cautious with technology budgets. This can lead to delays or cancellations of large-scale projects, especially discretionary ones that don’t require immediate action.

    Two Pressure Points

    • Demand pressure: Higher borrowing costs may prompt US clients to postpone software upgrades, digital initiatives, and consulting engagements.
    • Valuation pressure: Rising US bond yields reduce the present value of future earnings, putting additional strain on technology stocks.

    This sell-off reflects more than a knee-jerk reaction to a single jobs report. Investors are now confronting a tougher policy backdrop while Indian IT companies already face headwinds from weak demand, artificial intelligence disruption, and slower growth.

    Infosys Leads the Decline

    Infosys was the hardest hit among the three largest IT firms, closing 3.76% lower at Rs. 1,087.50. The stock is now roughly 37% below its 52-week high of Rs. 1,727.85. TCS showed relative resilience with a 1.48% drop, and HCLTech fared best with a 0.82% decline. However, HCLTech also remains well below its 52-week peak of Rs. 1,780.10.

    These moves indicate that while the sector-wide pressure is visible, individual stocks have reacted differently. The overarching concern remains US demand, interest rate trajectory, and the future of technology spending.

    AI Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty

    Beyond central bank policy, artificial intelligence continues to weigh on the sector. Investors are debating whether AI will drive additional technology demand or reduce the need for traditional IT services. AI can cut the time and cost for coding, testing, support, and other software tasks. At the same time, companies require external partners for AI deployment, system integration, governance, and modernization.

    This creates both a risk and an opportunity for firms like TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech. The market now seeks evidence that AI-led demand can offset pressures on legacy service models. Deal wins, client budgets, margins, and management guidance will be critical for the next phase of the IT sector.

    September Fed Meeting in Focus

    The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is the most significant near-term event for Indian IT stocks. UBS has revised its forecast and now expects two 25-basis-point rate hikes in 2026—one in September and another in December—reversing its earlier view of no change this year.

    A softer US inflation report could ease rate-hike fears and trigger a relief rally. Conversely, a hot inflation reading could push bond yields higher and intensify selling pressure.

    The sharp decline on September 7 marks a critical test for TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech. The next move will likely depend more on US inflation data and the Fed’s decision than on the single-day sell-off.

    FAQs

    1. Why did Indian IT stocks fall on September 7?

    Indian IT stocks declined after strong US jobs data revived fears of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.

    2. Which major IT stock fell the most?

    Infosys recorded the sharpest drop among TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech, falling 3.76% to Rs. 1,087.50.

    3. How do higher US interest rates affect Indian IT companies?

    Higher rates can encourage US companies to tighten spending and delay discretionary technology projects, potentially reducing demand for IT services.

    4. What additional risk is affecting Indian IT stocks?

    Artificial intelligence is creating uncertainty over traditional IT services while also opening opportunities in AI implementation, integration, and modernization.

    5. What should investors watch next?

    The US inflation report and the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision are key near-term triggers for IT stocks.

  • MCX Gold Climbs 1.47% to Rs 1,47,900 as US Jobs Data Eases Rate Hike Fears; Silver and Brent Also Gain

    MCX Gold Climbs 1.47% to Rs 1,47,900 as US Jobs Data Eases Rate Hike Fears; Silver and Brent Also Gain

    Gold prices rallied on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on July 3, buoyed by softer-than-expected US jobs data that lowered expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. August gold futures surged 1.47% to Rs 1,47,900 per 10 grams, while September silver futures advanced 1.85% to Rs 2,37,630. In the energy market, Brent crude futures rose 0.61% to $72.34 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.47% to $69.01.

    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 54% probability of a rate hike in September, down from 66% previously. The shift in sentiment followed a lackluster US labor market report, which dampened hawkish Fed expectations and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

    Domestic Gold Prices

    In the Indian market, 24K gold increased by Rs 322 to Rs 1,47,000 per 10 grams, while 22K gold rose by Rs 295 to Rs 1,34,750. Regional variations were minimal: Mumbai and Kolkata quoted Rs 1,47,000, Delhi Rs 1,47,150, and Chennai Rs 1,49,500.

    US Gold Prices

    Internationally, spot gold climbed 1.4% to $4,179.94 per ounce, and US gold futures for August delivery gained 1.6% to $4,193.20. Spot silver rose 2.3% to $62.43 per ounce, platinum added 2.7% to $1,660.05, and palladium increased 1.3% to $1,284.40.

    Key Levels to Watch

    Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, noted that the market is pricing in fewer Fed rate hikes for the remainder of this year and early next year, driven by the weak US jobs data. However, he cautioned that rate hike expectations have not been completely erased, and gold could still face downside pressure, potentially testing the $3,500/oz level.

    On the international front, gold has support at $4,084 and $4,040 per troy ounce, with resistance at $4,180 and $4,240. Silver support stands at $59.40 and $58, while resistance is at $63 and $64.40. On MCX, gold support is at Rs 1,44,400 and Rs 1,43,350, with resistance at Rs 1,47,100 and Rs 1,48,800. Silver support on MCX is at Rs 2,33,000 and Rs 2,26,600, with resistance at Rs 2,37,700 and Rs 2,41,000.

  • FTSE 100 Edges Up 23.57 Points as Weak US Jobs Data Calms Fed Rate Hike Bets

    FTSE 100 Edges Up 23.57 Points as Weak US Jobs Data Calms Fed Rate Hike Bets

    The FTSE 100 index opened 23.57 points higher at 10,693 on Friday, buoyed by softer-than-expected US employment data that eased expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The index later settled at 10,676.44, reflecting a cautious but positive start to the trading session.

    Brent crude futures rose 0.61% to $72.34 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.47% to $69.01 a barrel, supported by the weaker dollar and renewed risk appetite.

    Gainers and Losers

    On the upside, Fresnillo led the advance with a 2.54% rise to £2,952, followed by SSE which gained 2.44% to £2,520. Metlen Energy & Metals added 1.77% to €42.60, and Weir Group rose 1.72% to £2,486. Anglo American climbed 1.47% to £3,796, while Aberdeen Group increased 1.42% to £257.20.

    Among the decliners, Whitbread fell 0.96% to £2,376, Games Workshop dropped 0.75% to £21,320, and Next slipped 0.55% to £14,585. Coca-Cola HBC declined 0.49% to £5,115, AstraZeneca eased 0.29% to £14,496, and London Stock Exchange Group edged down 0.26% to £8,586.

    Craneware Shares Plunge 20%

    Healthcare software company Craneware saw its shares tumble 20% in early trading after issuing a full-year trading update that warned financial performance would be “below market expectations.” The company said pricing revenue would be between $205 million and $208 million for the year, impacted by a “deferral of a small number of significant enterprise contracts,” which it now expects to close in the next financial year.

    “Naturally, we are disappointed not to have delivered the growth that we expected in full-year 2026. While the short-term complexity in the pharmacy market has impacted the year, the long-term opportunity remains intact,” said Craneware CEO Keith Neilson.

    Harbour Energy Stake Sale

    Investment firm EIG sold its entire 3.5% stake in London-listed oil and gas company Harbour Energy for £112 million. The transaction was executed via an accelerated bookbuild coordinated by Barclays, with Potomac, an investment vehicle controlled by EIG, offloading the shares.

    US Jobs Data Weakens

    The US economy added just 57,000 nonfarm jobs in June, roughly half the 113,000 forecast, with April and May figures revised lower. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, driven by a fall in labor force participation rather than genuine job creation. Wage growth was in line with expectations, further reducing pressure on the Fed to raise rates.

    Global Market Overview

    In the US, stocks ended mixed ahead of the Independence Day weekend. The Dow Jones added 1% to close at a fresh record high, while the Nasdaq fell 0.8% as a semiconductor sell-off offset gains. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%.

    In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi surged 5.76% to 8,088.34, Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 1.47% to 69,744.07, and Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 0.08%. India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex rose 0.71% and 0.56%, respectively.