Bitcoin is holding near $63,300 after a turbulent week, as bulls defend the $62,000 support level. The rebound faces a fresh challenge from surging Japanese government bond yields, which have climbed to 30-year highs and are pushing global borrowing costs higher.
Japanese 10-year bond yields rose to 2.85%, an 18-basis-point increase since the start of July. This move has lifted U.S. Treasury yields to test 4.5%, while German and UK yields are also climbing. Higher yields make fixed-income assets more attractive relative to Bitcoin, which does not pay interest, raising the opportunity cost of holding BTC.
Bitcoin found support near $58,000 on July 1 and rallied to $64,000, driven by softer U.S. inflation data and weaker jobs numbers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted on July 1 that inflation risks had diminished, and the June nonfarm payrolls report showed only half the expected job gains. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.5%, its lowest in over five years. These factors fueled rate-cut hopes and boosted risk assets.
However, the recovery was partly futures-driven, with net futures buying reaching $415 million on Sunday while spot flows remained slightly negative. This made the rally vulnerable to a fast unwind. A subsequent sell-off was triggered by Strategy’s disclosure of a $216 million Bitcoin sale to fund dividends on preferred securities. The company sold 3,588 BTC, causing a sharp price drop.
Bitcoin later recovered as futures buying returned, supported by $143 million in spot buying. Liquidations surged 279.73% to $236.38 million in 24 hours, forcing leveraged positions to close and driving a short squeeze. BTC is now trading in a tight range: holding above $62,000 could allow a test of $65,000, while a break below may expose $60,000 or $59,500. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, signaling ‘Fear.’
Analysts remain divided on the impact of rising Japanese yields. Goldman Sachs expects the yen to weaken further and continues to favor yen-funded carry trades, suggesting that global risk appetite may not fully unwind. For now, traders are watching key support and resistance levels as macro factors and corporate flows shape Bitcoin’s next move.
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