Bitcoin entered August under renewed selling pressure, falling to a two-week low of $62,400 after repeated failures near the $65,000 resistance level. The decline was driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, significant ETF withdrawals, and a bearish technical signal. However, strength in global equity markets offered a potential counterbalance, leaving traders divided on the cryptocurrency’s next move.
Geopolitical Risks Intensify
Iran reportedly attacked two oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military escort, while turning back four other vessels. The attacks raised concerns about energy supply disruptions and the potential for a broader military confrontation. Iran also launched drones toward U.S.-linked military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, though Kuwait reported intercepting them without casualties.
President Donald Trump met with Cabinet members at Camp David to review options, though no formal military operation was announced. Reports from The Wall Street Journal indicated preparations for a potential strike, while CBS News suggested the U.S. could target Iranian energy assets during a weekend escalation. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate voted 49–50 against a measure to restrict Trump’s authority, leaving the administration’s short-term military options largely intact.
ETF Outflows and FOMC Fallout
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, prompting Bitcoin to drop roughly $3,000 over several days. Analysts noted a recurring pattern of post-FOMC weakness. Rising oil prices renewed inflation concerns, adding pressure across risk markets. A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields further dampened demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed a three-week inflow streak, recording $61.53 million in weekly net outflows after attracting over $200 million in the prior period. Friday alone saw more than $265 million in withdrawals, erasing Thursday’s $233 million net inflow. A reported U.S.-Israeli proposal for a land blockade of Iran remains under discussion, adding to uncertainty.
Technical Warning vs. Equity Rebound
Analyst Ali Martinez noted that the TD Sequential indicator flashed a major sell signal on Bitcoin’s three-day chart, a pattern traders use to identify potential price reversals. Martinez linked the signal to the start of August, a month that has historically seen Bitcoin pullbacks, though the pattern does not guarantee future price action.
In contrast, analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted Bitcoin’s historical correlation with the NASDAQ and South Korea’s KOSPI, both of which surged late in the week. The KOSPI rose about 18%, while U.S. technology shares strengthened. Van de Poppe recalled that Bitcoin rallied toward $83,000 after a similar market move, suggesting equities could offset the current headwinds.
Conclusion
Bitcoin begins August below $65,000, facing downside pressure from geopolitical escalation, post-FOMC weakness, ETF outflows, and a TD Sequential sell signal. Yet sharp gains in the NASDAQ and KOSPI support a potential rebound case. Market attention now turns to energy prices, fund flows, and military developments as conflicting signals define the month ahead.
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