Solana (SOL) extended its recovery on Wednesday, climbing above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as retail trading activity picked up, even as institutional demand through exchange-traded funds remained subdued. The token gained approximately 4% in the previous session, buoyed by improving sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market.
Technical indicators show Solana reclaiming the 50-day EMA at $76.82 and moving above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $76.92. These levels are critical for sustaining the current rebound. However, SOL faces immediate resistance from a descending trendline near $81.50. A daily close above that level would confirm a break from the existing downtrend and open the path toward the next resistance at $88.56, with the 200-day EMA at $94.52 serving as the next major barrier.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 54, indicating moderate buying pressure without overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching a bullish crossover near its signal line, which could signal improving momentum if confirmed.
Retail Activity Strengthens, Institutional Caution Persists
Data from CoinGlass shows Solana futures open interest holding steady near $4.91 billion over the past 24 hours, suggesting traders are maintaining leveraged positions. Futures trading volume rose 15% to approximately $6.90 billion, reflecting stronger market participation. Solana’s funding rate remained positive at about 0.0040%, meaning long-position holders are paying shorts to keep positions open.
In contrast, institutional demand remains weak. SoSoValue data indicates Solana ETFs recorded zero net inflows for two consecutive trading sessions this week, highlighting a cautious approach from traditional investors despite the retail-driven recovery.
Morgan Stanley Revises Solana ETF Filing
In a significant development, Morgan Stanley has filed its third round of amendments for proposed spot Ether and Solana ETFs. The updated S-1 registration statements name Coinbase as custodian and staking facilitator, with BNY Mellon serving as joint custodian for both trusts.
The Solana ETF, proposed to list on NYSE Arca under the ticker MSOL, may stake up to 100% of its SOL holdings, though a portion will remain liquid for redemptions and expenses. Staking providers and custodians would receive 5% of generated staking rewards, with the remaining 95% accruing to the trust. Earlier filings also listed Figment, Galaxy Blockchain Infrastructure, and Coinbase Canada as staking service providers.
What to Watch
Solana’s recovery has gained traction after reclaiming its 50-day EMA and seeing improved futures activity. However, weak ETF inflows underscore continued institutional caution. Morgan Stanley’s revised ETF filing could bolster future interest, while the $81.50 resistance level remains the key technical threshold for traders to monitor.
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