SpaceX shares closed at $136.08 on Tuesday, July 14, marking a third consecutive daily decline and putting the stock just $1.08 above its initial public offering price of $135. The drop represents a 33% fall from the post-listing peak of $225.64, erasing nearly $850 billion in market value according to Bloomberg estimates.
SpaceX Stock Tests Key IPO Level
The stock’s slide has brought the $135 IPO price back into focus. A move below that level would put early buyers in a losing position, particularly concerning given that retail investors received roughly 20% of the IPO allocation. The stock already trades below its opening price of $150 and its first-day close of $160.95, despite being added to the NASDAQ-100 through fast-entry rules last week.
High Valuation and New Supply Add Pressure
SpaceX trades at an estimated forward price-to-sales ratio above 30 times, among the highest in the NASDAQ-100. The valuation has drawn increased scrutiny as technology shares face broader questions about growth expectations. Additionally, a staggered lock-up schedule will release insider shares over the coming months, potentially adding supply. Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, noted, “We still don’t think SpaceX has found its low,” citing the need for sufficient market demand to absorb new shares.
Wall Street Targets Stay Well Above the Price
Despite the recent decline, Wall Street analysts remain broadly supportive. Over 80% of analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying, with an average price target of $236.25—more than 70% above Tuesday’s close. However, early volatility is common among large tech listings; a Truist Wealth review of 30 major technology IPOs over 15 years found an average maximum first-year decline of 55%. Some investors may view the $135 area as an attractive entry point after missing the IPO allocation. Talley Leger, chief market strategist at Wealth Consulting Group, said he may consider buying if the decline continues. The coming sessions will test whether demand holds near the offer price as insider supply approaches.
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