Bitcoin entered August under renewed selling pressure, slipping to a two-week low of $62,400 after repeated failures near $65,000. The decline followed fresh geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, significant ETF outflows, and a bearish technical signal from the TD Sequential indicator. However, a sharp rally in global stock markets provided a counterbalance, offering the cryptocurrency a potential path to recovery.
Geopolitical Risks Intensify
Iran claimed it attacked two oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz under US military escort, while turning back four other vessels. The attacks raised concerns about energy supply disruptions through the critical waterway. The US escort also heightened the risk of a direct military confrontation and broader market instability.
Additionally, Iran launched drones toward US-linked military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait intercepted the drones, reporting no casualties. President Donald Trump convened cabinet members at Camp David to review options, but no formal military operation was announced. Reports from The Wall Street Journal and CBS News indicated that the US could target Iranian energy assets in a potential weekend escalation.
The US Senate voted 49–50 against advancing a measure that would restrict Trump’s authority to continue hostilities, leaving the administration’s military options largely unchanged.
ETF Outflows and Post-FOMC Pressure
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and Bitcoin dropped roughly $3,000 over the following days, extending a pattern analysts have tied to recent FOMC meetings. Rising oil prices revived inflation concerns, adding pressure across risk markets.
A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields further weighed on Bitcoin, as both trends can reduce demand for non-yielding assets during economic uncertainty. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed a three-week inflow streak, recording $61.53 million in net outflows for the week. Friday saw particularly heavy withdrawals of more than $265 million, erasing the impact of Thursday’s $233 million net inflow.
A reported US-Israeli proposal for a land blockade of Iran is also under discussion, aiming to restrict Iranian imports and exports with help from neighboring countries.
Technical Warning Amid Equity Rebound
Analyst Ali Martinez noted that the TD Sequential indicator flashed a major sell signal on Bitcoin’s three-day chart, a tool traders use to identify possible price direction changes. Martinez linked the signal to the start of August, a month that has historically brought Bitcoin pullbacks, though the pattern does not guarantee future moves.
Michaël van de Poppe offered a contrasting view, pointing to Bitcoin’s historical correlation with the NASDAQ and South Korea’s KOSPI. Both indexes surged late in the week—the KOSPI rose about 18%, and US technology shares strengthened. Van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin rallied toward $83,000 after a similar market move in the past.
The question now is whether stronger global equities can offset war risks, Bitcoin ETF outflows, and the latest technical warning. Bitcoin’s near-term direction hinges on conflicting signals entering August.
Conclusion
Bitcoin begins August below $65,000, facing headwinds from geopolitical escalation, post-FOMC weakness, ETF withdrawals, and a TD Sequential sell signal. At the same time, sharp gains in the NASDAQ and KOSPI support a rebound case. Market attention now turns to energy prices, fund flows, and military developments.
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