Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.161 on Thursday after a slight decline, but on-chain data and derivatives activity suggest growing investor confidence ahead of the van Rossem hard fork set for Saturday. Large holders have been accumulating, while futures open interest and funding rates have improved. However, ADA remains below key technical levels, leaving traders watching for a breakout or a retest of support.
Whale Accumulation Grows as Network Upgrade Nears
According to Santiment, wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA now control over 25.65 billion ADA—the highest level since February 2023. In contrast, smaller wallets (under 100 ADA) reduced holdings by about 0.7% over the past four months, highlighting a divergence between large investors and retail traders.
Cardano’s development roadmap advanced this week after Intersect confirmed the van Rossem hard fork activation on Saturday, following governance ratification. The upgrade introduces new Plutus functionality and protocol improvements designed to enhance smart contract performance, developer tools, and network efficiency.
Futures Data Reflects Improving Market Sentiment
Derivatives data from CoinGlass shows Cardano futures open interest rising from $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday. Rising open interest alongside stable prices often indicates new capital entering the futures market rather than position closures. Additionally, ADA’s funding rate turned positive at 0.0042%, meaning long traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain their positions.
Technical Barriers Continue to Limit ADA
Despite positive fundamentals, ADA remains below key moving averages: the 50-day EMA at $0.179, 100-day EMA at $0.208, and 200-day EMA at $0.276. It also trades below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.173 and trendline resistance near $0.207.
Momentum indicators are mixed. The RSI is near 46 (neutral), while the MACD has turned slightly positive, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening but no sustained reversal is confirmed yet.
If buyers regain control, resistance levels are at $0.179, then the $0.207–$0.208 region, followed by $0.2135 (50% Fibonacci). On the downside, immediate support is at $0.1500, with a break below potentially exposing the June 25 swing low of $0.1382.
What’s Next?
Cardano is trading below major resistance despite improving market signals. The van Rossem hard fork and whale accumulation provide a bullish backdrop, but technical resistance remains a hurdle. Traders will be watching whether ADA can break above key levels or revisit support.
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